I might-should've rephrased my original post to suggest that mocks for non-code-you-wrote deps are a waste, but being able to inject different implementations of code you wrote for the sake of testing still has value.
If you want to test how your code behaves when getting/setting data from a database, you fundamentally cannot mock the database. If you want to test how your code forms arguments to send to a dependency, you probably can, as long as you do both. If you're just testing that your args are correct without actually using them, you'll never really know.
A specific example stands out in my mind when I watched a TDD-minded developer suggest that their code was complete because they injected a mocked version of DynamoDB into a service and then verified their tests ran. They committed and pushed without actually testing against DynamoDB. When tasked with _actually running it_, they found that there was a fundamental flaw in the way that developer perceived Dynamo's behavior, which obviously meant their mock was totally useless.
If you want to test that you're pulling the right ID off an object to send to a database you can mock. If you want to test how your code actually behaves with a database, including failure scenarios and invalid arguments, you cannot.
As usual, solutions are much more nuanced than I previously stated. I've moved away from mocks, not banished them entirely.