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Comment by bluedevil2k | Hacker News Reader

> Over the next 5 years, highly unlikely

This is the problem with the Bitcoin enthusiasts - they think they can predict the future price with near certainty. You don’t think that rosy picture of BTC is held by thousands of others and already baked into the share price? “Highly unlikely” only describes Bitcoin’s potential as a store of value.

If your investing horizon is any amount of time, Bitcoin is not for you. Bitcoin is not an investment, it’s a pure speculation. As another comment perfectly summed it up, lottery tickets are not an investment.

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As relevant then as it is now ... apologies for re-posting this, it's just not possible for me not to do so:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XbZ8zDpX2Mg

Ah yes, using past performance to predict future returns. They only warn against doing that in every investment prospectus ever.

>They only warn against doing that in every investment prospectus ever.

Right before they show you 20 pages of past performance graphs.

I wonder why they would exert themselves in such a fashion after the govt-mandated CYA disclaimer

Also: I think you've missed the point of the video.

A change in stock to flow is not "priced in". And gold is also a speculation, it still works/worked. Social value networks are quite sticky and tend to get stronger over time.

Gold didn’t work! As I stated in another comment, gold is way down compared to its historical high in the 80’s (when adjusted for inflation).

Its also been around for 3000 years and is far past its price discovery phase. Aside from that you dont hold gold in perpetuity, its for certain several year stretches and certain decades. I hold none just because I think btc challenges it (which is also the view of JP Morgan's latest opinion so in decent company).

Second comment here: Long cyclical runs can be timed. For instance golds decade long rip prior to the decline was due to etf introductions.

And no I dont think you do “got it”. You dont hold anything in existence forever. If youre not comfortable making shifts every few years (or whatever) and having to actually do some thinking from time to time then investing isnt for you.

> you dont hold gold in perpetuity, its for certain several year stretches and certain decades

So you only hold it when you’re trying to time the market? Got it.

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