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He is usually right, but tends to be right a bit too early.

In anything with a cyclical component, being right "too early" and being wrong are very nearly the same thing, and certainly close enough as to make no difference.

Do you have an overview of his trading history that suggests he's "usually right"?

Why would he place a naive bet on Tesla's performance across all factors and not hedge non-idiosyncratic cyclical macro factors?

Wikipedia says the guy's made $300M investing, as a notable contrarian - not making his buck from beta.

Can you point to an overview of his trading history that suggests he's "not usually right"?

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