Even if another company decides to try to replicate what SpaceX is doing, they're now at least a decade behind.
Nobody has the present institutional knowledge that they have.
Even if another company decides to try to replicate what SpaceX is doing, they're now at least a decade behind.
Nobody has the present institutional knowledge that they have.
There is one entity that can and will rapidly close that gap. In fact, they're the only one that can: China. Everyone else will continue on their slow path, more or less adopting everything SpaceX figures out a decade after the fact. The other competition operates permanently by hand-me-downs. China will invest huge sums of money and labor into doing the same thing and the difference between them and eg the Europeans, is the Chinese will and can move with ridiculous speed by comparison. The other competition won't adjust their speed, so they'll generally continue to lag SpaceX perpetually, whereas China can move at a far greater pace (aerospace, as with a few other big segments like semiconductors, is of course a core logical focus point for China, which means they will catch up no matter the cost; they'll borrow from SpaceX better than anyone else and faster than anyone else, right up to the point of copying everything). And to be clear, I don't fault China at all for that approach, it will work very well; they can leapfrog everyone not named SpaceX that way.
China has not yet itself produced an engine anywhere close to a Raptor and they have been trying for quite a while.
China can not spend gigantic amounts of money on everything at once, and even if they do, it by far doesn't work all of the time.
When you are copying SpaceX you are always cooping something that is already outdated and SpaceX will not stop innovating.
In 2020, China has launched more rockets to space than any other nation.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chang%27e_5
It has a mission to bring lunar rock back to earth for the first time since the 70s.
So I would say that China has put quite a bit of energy in this area and is moving faster than other nations but not as fast as SpaceX.
They should be justly proud of their robotic lunar missions though.
> It has a mission to bring lunar rock back to earth for the first time since the 70s.
Yes its a fine mission, but its a mission that is not outside of the capability of others. There are simply many space missions that could be done.
Yes, China is doing things and the are moving fast, but your prediction and text were still over the top.
http://www.hayabusa2.jaxa.jp/en/enjoy/material/factsheet/Fac...
The Chinese literally haven’t done anything novel in their space program. Even the words they said upon landing on that mission were a copy of the Americans. ‘"It's a small step for the rover, but one giant leap for the Chinese nation," Wu Weiren, the chief designer of the Lunar Exploration Project, told state broadcaster CCTV.’ The Chinese literally can’t do anything but copy and it’s embarrassing.
https://phys.org/news/2019-01-chinese-rover-exploring-dark-s...
No, I'm not kidding.
https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/11/china-keeps-dropping...
The Electron can put 600kg into low Earth orbit.
Falcon 9 can handle 15,000 kg. Starship is expected to handle 100,000 kg.
The Falcon 1 is a good comparison to the Electron. If it had been fully developed it was expected to lift 600kg to leo by 2010 or 2011. 10 years ago, basically.
> they're now at least a decade behind.
The original claim was that competitors are a decade behind spaceX and Electron's capabilities are comparable to the technology spaceX had a decade ago. The Falcon 9 comparisons are to highlight the decade delta.
edit: grammar
My gut says that if they don't test they can't deliver, and that Elon's rapid prototyping will keep SpaceX far in the lead for the foreseeable future. But only time will tell.
It has plans to someday build a competitor to the 13 year old Falcon 9.
Oh and Bezos started BO before SpaceX, and has given it substantially more funding.
Seems to me that they may be trying to pivot away from having orbital rockets being their main product with the sale of BE-4 engines to ULA for Vulcan and all of their work on lunar projects. But that could also be them trying to get more friendly with NASA or get development of the BE-4 paid for or any number of other things. They certainly are lacking in terms of actual hardware being seen.