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Comment by burlesona | Hacker News Reader

How is TSMC being taken over by China?

Just a guess, but there's been some press about China luring TSMC's talent by offering outsized salaries. Also, there's the increasingly aggressive military presence of China (flying bombers and jets over Taiwanese airspace with ever greater audacity) which suggests it's only a matter of time before China officially takes Taiwan. I honestly don't see the world doing anything to stop that.

So i wonder if "being overtaken" by China is a better way to phrase it then.

US is doing everything they can to kill semiconductor in China. US and Japan have most of the key tools, components necessary to design and fabricate semiconductor. After US announce the sanction on SMIC, the writing is on the wall for China's semiconductor industry. Just this week we saw huge rise in Taiwanese semiconductor companies's stocks price and huge drop in China's semiconductor companies's.

US tried to kill China's space industry. Look how it went.

Only 14 out of 193 UN countries recognize Taiwan as an independent state. Given how Hong Kong was forced to bend the knee recently, I'd say this is a reasonable worry.

But many do provide support "unofficially". And HK was already under "one country, two systems", while Taiwan is de facto independent even if the PRC claims it.

They're just saying it's a worry.

The point is if China decide to do this, there isn't anyone who can stop them.

There will be quite a few people that stop them.

Like they did for Hong Kong?

Absurd comparison. HK was returned to China in accordance with a previously signed contract.

After it became part of China again, it is not possible to interviene militarily in Beijing - HK relationship - that would be an invasion of China and violation of international law. You could not phisically station an army in HK.

Even if China has violated an agreement with UK regarding HK autonomy, thay does not give you legal grounds to start a war.

In cotrast, you could deploy the entire US military in Taiwan tomorrow, it would be legal and peacefull (provided Taiwanese Gov. Invited it). Additionally, invading Taiwan is actually extremely difficult because of terrain, just because you have a massive land army does not mean they can just teleport to Taiwan. It would be basically a D-day style effort against a well entrenched opponent.

So it is unlikely we will see phisical takeover of Taiwan in the near future, as so far we have no indication that China is looming for a causualty heavy war with little gain.

HK doesn't have its own military. its a 99 yrs lease to UK that UK hand back.

Taiwan's history is complicated. it have its own military. its people pay taxes to Taiwan, not China. Taiwan's safety is its own responsibility. its more than possible that China can take Taiwan by force but at what price. its not like Taiwan's military have no teeth.

A Chinese takeover of Taiwan would be war between two advanced industrialized economies that is unprecedented in modern times since perhaps the end of WWII. It's not comparable to the PRC government reaffirming their dominance over territory they already had control over. At the very least, China would be hit with many sanctions in the event of such a conflict.

And yet the US military essentially safeguards Taiwan, and will continue to do so for the American business interests in TSMC.

... in 2020. What will happen in 2040, when the Chinese economy is double the US one?

Economies don't develop by linear growth extrapolation.

China's economy with all its issues has definitely far more potential for growth left than the EU or the USA... It's still a developing country for the most part. Better learn Chinese if you want to stay relevant in 30 years... wait better learn it now. In the hardware world, Documentation about new chips etc. is increasingly available in Chinese first.

Which chips?

> Economies don't develop by linear growth extrapolation.

This is true, but I view China's economic growth more as 'reversion to the mean' when their population is 3x that of the US.

How is the PRC's economy going to double in the next 20 years when their working class is the largest it will _ever_ be right now? Their demographics are extremely poor, and their population pyramid is about to violently invert.

Chinese growth is slowing every year. It's an open question if they'll ever surpass it.

Is China going to scale their military power as well?

Is their military power proven and able to assert power or enforce its will?

Will America maintain its might?

Taiwan have it own military. Taiwan never rely on any country for its own defensive.

If you are geographically close to a superior enemy you need a friend.

See Cuba and the Soviet Union

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