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Comment by entropicdrifter | Hacker News Reader

I'd say your description is spot-on, at least culturally. It's also the end of the post-08 crash era and the start of the post-20 crash era

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It seems a lot of people feared a tech bubble pop throughout the 2010s after the 08 crash, but it never really happened - hence the current "froth"

There are certainly short term tech bubbles but long term I don't think tech is a bubble. This stuff is here to stay and absolutely core to the economy, even more so after COVID mainstreamed telework.

Right now I think the biggest potential bubble is top-tier city real estate where residential is more than 10X median family income. Commercial real estate is probably in a bubble too, at least in those "hot" cities.

tech being here to stay is not contradictory with current bubble prices

The world is going remote, thus finally becoming the global village that the early start-ups envisioned. Why should there be a crash if huge optimization improvements are made? The only things that will tank are the airline industries and the real estate market.

Optimization improvements for whom? Those who already held significant assets and highly-trained white-collar knowledge workers? Yes. Others? Not so much. Wealth inequality was a serious issue before the pandemic and this so-called "K-Shaped Recovery" has dramatically accelerated the trend. We're in for some turbulent times ahead...

“The future is already here – it's just not evenly distributed."

Production is limited by energy supply. Once renewable energies have reached the point where carbon hydrates have to be dumped onto the market to make any profit at all, there will be an abundance of energy. At that moment, unless enough AI is built, workers will become the scarce resource.

>and the real estate market.

I'm not sure this will even be the case, depending on your perspective. Yes, we appear to be seeing a correction in commercial class A office space in major metros - but I'd argue that was a long time coming regardless. We may see a correction in residential real estate in those same major metros, but out here in rural America we're seeing an influx of people looking for better value than they were getting in coastal cities and it's driving our markets upward.

> It's also the end of the post-08 crash era and the start of the post-20 crash era

What crash? SP500 hit an all time high on Friday.

A crash in the real economy, if you will. Equity prices may or may not follow. There's a good chance that one year from now, the S&P 500 will be substantially lower than it is today.

>the S&P 500 will be substantially lower than it is today.

I'm curious - are you speaking speculatively here or do you have reasons why you believe that will be the case?

The stock market isn't the economy

The Fed printed 40 cents for every dollar that existed in March:

https://www.dailyhandle.com/the-government-has-printed-40-ce...

Expect all-time-highs in many things as 40% inflation goes trickles down, now that the velocity of money has stopped crashing:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1V

Worth noting that the current long term trend is the velocity of money going down, no reason to expect it to turn back up necessarily.

Definitely is a strong reason stocks are so overvalued though, yeah.

> no reason to expect it to turn back up necessarily.

Except that looking at the Fred graphs, now that the worst of Covid seems behind us, it's starting to.

Even if it doesn't go back to 2000 levels, it's certainly going to get to 2019 levels - meaning not just overvalued stocks but inflation too.

It's gonna hurt, but as it will also fix the student loan crisis, it could be overall a good thing!

Looking at the rates of deaths and infections, the worst of COVID is right now, at least in the USA.

It's good that the vaccines are starting to be distributed but it was only a week ago that my state sent out an emergency text for the first time ever stating that statewide hospital capacity was 90% used up.

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