> Insurance is an old and established business, many learnings already exists. The industry presumably is quite good at estimating and pricing risks.
This discussion is going circular. The "estimating and pricing risks" IS the premium. Which is all anyone in this thread has been saying.
I agree that insurance is cheap for the piece of mind. Which is why I have all kinds of insurance. Still most people get nothing out of an insurance, and some people get more than they've paid.
I'll try to summarize it in another way:
For regular insurance, what is paid in by buyers is X. And what is paid out is X - premiums (overhead, risks, estimates, etc etc etc). That is much less than 100%.
In the case of the shipping scenario, ~100% of what is paid in, is paid out to affected parties.
That seems pretty effective, albeit all participants now own the risk, but save on all other premiums.
If you think there's a better way, I'm sure you can take a smaller premium than the alternatives and make a lot of money.