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Comment by strogonoff | Hacker News Reader

Female cases are at 1/3 of male, but have surged much more significantly.

> Women, who have primary responsibility for childcare, have borne the brunt of pandemic-induced job losses and insecurity. They're also at greater risk of domestic violence, which help centers say has worsened here this year, as it has around the world.

Lockdowns might be justified in larger context, and at its core the issue of domestic abuse is orthogonal to health and safety measures, but let’s remember the silent victims (regardless of gender) around the world who during lockdowns (whether soft or hard) are likely suffering more.

Edited first paragraph since thankfully I have misread the statistic, but I stand by the sentiment.

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Japan hasn't really locked down in any real sense of the word though: some local governments have "encouraged" businesses to close, but there are essentially no legal levers to force them to do, much less require people to stay at home.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Picks/Interview/Tokyo-gover...

The one thing governments did do was close schools, which wreaked havoc on single parents and dual income families. The complete decimation of the tourist industry plus people staying at home due to general fear of the virus have also caused considerable economic damage, hence the job losses and insecurity.

Soft lockdowns are a problem, too: if the abuser in your home suddenly starts working remotely and is at home 95% of the time, arguably that’s not significantly different from a full lockdown with restricted freedom of movement.

Why do you have to:

1. Incorrectly quote the statistic (two thirds of suicides are male)

2. Come up with a BS narrative (domestic abuse, when japan isn’t even locked down) to explain these statistics after the fact (instead of a falsifiable hypothesis that can be tested)

Funnily enough, this is exactly what is wrong with social science in general.

You believe a sudden 80% increase in a statistic is not newsworthy?

No, if I'm reading the quote correctly:

"To date, more than 17,000 people have taken their own lives this year in Japan. October self-inflicted deaths were up 600 year on year, with female suicides, about a third of the total, surging over 80%."

that's an increase from 110 people in a month to 200 roughly, if the 80% is of the rise in the percentage of the female suicides and not of the total amount, if I read right. Overall it doesn't seem like suicide has exploded, just that Japan had a downwards trend that reversed back up to old levels.

Not very newsworthy at all, imo.

There is a rise in absolute numbers, and an even starker rise when considered against the baseline of the longer-term downwards trend. 80% is not far from doubling the number, which sounds pretty alarming.

I stand corrected regarding statistics (female cases rose more drastically but still do not exceed male cases) and edited my comment to reflect that, but will not take back the general sentiment. Domestic abuse statistics are near impossible to gather reliably, so I am extrapolating from what is known about this issue that current situation likely has made things worse for victims (of any gender).

I am aware that Japan is not under full lockdown, but partial lockdown (businesses like cafes or dance halls closing and owners staying at home) and remote work are a thing. Then, consider places elsewhere in the world where lockdown measures are or had been stricter.

it just sounds like you have a conclusion in mind and you're trying your hardest to make things fit it to be honest

I have a hypothesis which you are more than welcome to go ahead and try to disprove, I’d be only happy if you succeed. Your comment contains no arguments to the contrary, however.

That’s not how it works. That’s also not how science works. The burden of the proof is on whoever is making the claim. Saying “this unsubstantiated claim is true until proven wrong” is a logically fallacy.

This is not physics—electrons do not lie, self-select or suffer. Closing your ears and shouting “domestic abuse is not an issue, because surely we can just ask a bias-neutral perfectly random slice of the population whether they are experiencing or dealing it, and surely everyone can and is willing to answer truthfully” is what helps perpetuate the issue. This is expecting conclusive data where it is impossible to collect (absent total surveillance of households). What is available is anecdotal observations, and enough anecdotal observations can compel one to form a hypothesis.

>October self-inflicted deaths were up 600 year on year, with female suicides, about a third of the total, surging over 80%.

Not quite, about 1/3rd are women, which is 80% higher than last year. Still troubling regardless, of course.

I stand corrected.

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