This is my general rule in life: do what the professionals do.
Of course I have family members who are completely mistrusting of, say, medical professionals, and believe crap on the internet instead.
You can extrapolate long term data from SARS and MERS for tail risks of contracting COVID; but there's no other similar immunizations to extrapolate from.
By the time a vaccine is available for me (not in any risk categories; fairly poor access to COVID testing in my county, which I assume would mean poor access to vaccines, too), I'd guess we would have a lot more data on any immediate negative effects, so there's some confidence building; but it's still a choice between an unknowable risk and an unknowable risk.
Balanced against long term unknowable personal health risk as you say.
In the end my pov is it's better to get on with living now and if a vaccine offers that then I'll take it.
> I can't imagine taking a vaccine for covid anytime soon, least of all as the first round.
Well good for you, unless you're a doctor or nurse, you can’t. And by the time you ^are^ eligible, there will be millions of others who have the vaccine, and more data.
Granted, not the months or years of data you usually see with a vaccine, but that’s as abnormal as everything else these days…