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Comment by barnacled | Hacker News Reader

Except that autonomous cars vastly far away despite all the hype by silicon valley. They still cannot deal with edge case scenarios at all well and are far from being proven to be safe. Relying on this being in place by 2030 + lifetime of 2nd hand cars is a huge gamble.

See https://blog.piekniewski.info/2020/03/01/av-safety-myths-and... and his blog in general for a more in-depth analysis of the situation. It's likely we need new AI techniques to have fully autonomous vehicles that function correctly.

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I don’t disagree, but I wouldn’t describe it as a “huge gamble.”

People would just need to continue owning electric/second-hand ICE vehicles and, in the case of electric vehicles, find ways of charging them away from their homes.

When autonomous vehicles become widely available (2030, 2040, or whenever), I think many would decide owning an expensive, depreciating asset they only use sparingly is more hassle than it’s worth.

I agree that once it becomes feasible many would prefer autonomous (hell yeah, a cheap ride home when I'm drunk? Or a sleep on the way to work? Ideal) but given the timelines we should look elsewhere for the time being.

I think "find ways of charging them away from their homes" does not scale given how long a charge takes and the numbers involved. If you've ever seen a petrol station at peak time you tend to get an idea of just how impractical that is.

I don't see any way round a truly colossal investment in infrastructure in order to move to fully electric in the UK (or any country), which maybe is necessary - but govts need to openly say this and then start actually taking action on it, not haughtily act as if it's not the case.

My gut feel is that things will work themselves out.

A lot of people have driveways and can charge at home. Those that don’t are likely those in cities who typically make shorter journeys and will need to charge infrequently.

If you’re one of the strange people who commute long distances out of a major city, you’ll just need to make a personal decision whether it’s worth the hassle.

I’ve been quite impressed at the rollout of charging infrastructure so far. If my quick Googling is anything to go by, there are roughly 30k public charging points for approximately 160k all-electric vehicles in the UK. Both numbers are growing rapidly but that ratio feels high right now.

The tech is already there. The incentives are there for energy companies to charge for the electricity. The political will (i.e. to permit installation of charging points in public spaces) is there.

> owning an expensive, depreciating asset they only use sparingly is more hassle than it’s worth.

Appears though that electric cars are likely to be far more durable than gasoline powered cars and cheaper. In ten years a EV will probably cost 80% what a gasoline powered car would and will last 30 years not 15. Cost of ownership over the life of the car would then be 40% of a gasoline car is today. Less considering maintenance and fuel.

I disagree. Batteries are very expensive and ultimately consumable parts. I do not see them lasting 30 years.

Consider also it’s unusual for people to own cars for even 10+ years currently, for reasons that apply just as readily to electric or autonomous vehicles.

People want the latest and greatest. Many value the warranties they get with new vehicles. Over 30 years the odds of a vehicle being stolen or involved in an accident and being written off are also pretty high.

> I do not see them lasting 30 years.

High mileage Tesla's show that the batteries last somewhere between 300,000 and 500,000 miles. Which is 25 to 40 years based on the median number of miles people drive per year.

> People want the latest and greatest.

Lot of people just want an affordable way to get from point A to B with a minimum of hassle and expense. The game changer with electric is if the batteries and motors last 25 to 40 years then the rest of the car needs to match that.

I am not sure how you converted mileage to time here. Dividing a distance by speed would only works in assumption that the battery does not degrade over time by itself. Is there any working 25 years old Li-ion battery somewhere?

I've messed with some 20 year old lion cells. They work okay.

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