Prediction markets seem to be doing a really terrible job at predicting an election that already happened...

Right now predictit.org has Biden winning at 89% and Trump winning at 15%[1].

But if you look at it by "electoral margin victory" and add up all the Republican win margins, you get that Republicans have 28% chance of winning and Democrats have 95%.[2]

This is two weeks after the election that is pretty clear a Joe Biden/Democratic victory. These markets may get things right, but they also get things really, really wrong.

[1]Yes, adds up to over 100. You could bet against both for a guaranteed profit, however I believe the markets aren't allowing new traders and there are also fees and counter party risk to consider [2] https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6653/What-will-be-t...