Hacker News Reader

Comment by pfdietz | Hacker News Reader

Late December. Full coverage of the US by June.

Do you have a source for that?

A source for one of the claims from Moderna's press release: "By the end of 2020, the Company expects to have approximately 20 million doses of mRNA-1273 ready to ship in the U.S."

20 million doses are for 10 million people. Everyone needs two shots.

Also, having the doses is one thing. Distributing and administering them is another. At least 30% of people will certainly refuse to get vaccinated as well, further complicating things.

I welcome the vaccine (am a pro-vaxxer), but have no plans to be part of the first wave of recipients. Am fine beta testing games, but not eager to beta test a vaccine.

I think this perspective gets lost amongst concerns about anti-vaxxers - I don’t think 30% of the US is anti-vaccine, but >1 are skeptical about being a lab rat for something with a fast-tracked testing phase.

Except your not beta testing. We had pre-alpha testing (phase I), alpha testing (phase II), and beta testing (phase III) already.

We (the US) should've had coordinated national messaging and education of vaccine mechanisms and safety starting the middle of last summer, but that would've required actual national leadership.

How much testing is enough before releasing a product to market?

Look, I'm sure they've tested. And I'm sure they've done enough to satisfy their regulatory burden.

Just saying I'm not going to be the first over the wall - I'll leave that to the eager.

Unless you are a front line worker or are high-risk, you won't be part of the first wave of vaccinations. By the time someone offers you a shot, it will have been give to tens of millions of people over several months (and well over 6 months for the Phase 3 participants).

"if [conditions], cautious people will be accommodated systemically."

Yes, assumed.

At some point, you have to take a leap of faith. For all you know, it could take 10 years for negative effects to appear. Not being the first in line will tell you nothing that the trial didn’t already tell us, and waiting a year will tell you nothing about side effects in 2, 5, 10 or 20 years.

I choose to trust the scientists who understand the science of how these vaccines interact with the body. I would prefer to take a bet on them and be part of the solution rather than believing in some self-formulated risk analysis and remaining part of the problem.

The kind of people swayed by "national messaging" (e.g. "Your government assures you this fast-tracked vaccine is safe enough for you") are probably not the problem here.

It's the people that have heard enough "national messaging" in their lifetime to regard everything skeptically (see [0]-[5] for some context).

More "national messaging" isn't what fixes healthy skepticism of the same.

[0] https://reason.com/2016/01/21/the-man-who-caused-benghazi-ex... [1] https://archive.vn/gaxG6 [2] https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2013/s1220-gardasil-vacci... [3] https://www.cdc.gov/vaccinesafety/concerns/history/narcoleps... [4] https://www.vox.com/2020/5/29/21273625/coronavirus-masks-req... [5] https://www.theguardian.com/news/2020/apr/10/world-health-or...

This pretty much. I think people get a little too into dunking on general anti-vaxxers, and want to extend it to ridiculing any skepticism at all. I don't really want to be first in line for something rushed through full-scale trials to fight a disease with a >99% survival rate.

Fortunately, it seems unlikely this will be an issue. It'll take a while to ramp up production and distribution, and the first doses will likely go to some combination of those most vulnerable to the disease, and those most worried about it. I think we'll be able to be a lot more confident about it by the time there are even doses available for those who are reluctant, much less before anyone starts thinking about the more coercive methods being floated.

The first few tens of millions of people vaccinated will be people who are at high risk and would be turbo-fucked if they got Covid-19. That changes the risk calculus a lot.

Very true. A risk-based analysis is the proper approach.

I think you'll essentially get your wish regardless. Assuming you're just a regular Joe citizen (not a healthcare worker, not someone high risk) you're highly unlikely to get access to the first run regardless. So, if phase 3 was a beta test, phase 4 will be millions of doses going to people as a sort of invite only full-release. So, as long as you're fine taking it 3-6 months or more after that, if no ill effects have befallen the millions of early adopters, then you're gold.

I have always been fully vaccinated. My children have been fully vaccinated. But I have to admit some trepidation about a fast-tracked vaccine. Governments need a silver bullet to end Covid-19 quickly, which means that the risk of corners being cut is non-zero. I'll probably take the shot, but vigilance is in order.

Was it much of a fast tracked testing phase?

AFAIK the biggest speedup was being able to skip in line and with other bureaucracy speedups.

> (am a pro-vaxxer)

You mean pro-reality.

The first wave of vaccines are destined for frontline and high-risk individuals. They may have a different perspective on the vaccine than your Average Joe, and I doubt uptake will be a big concern. I don't think distributing and administering will be difficult since it will be on a limited scale. The later rollout to the general public is where most of the problems may be.

To some extent we are guessing because nothing is approved. Maybe something "funny" we be found in the data and nothing get approved and we never get a vaccine. Maybe everything goes perfect and we have both vaccines approved by December 1st, with the other following (which currently don't have enough data to apply for approval) in a few days.

No way there is full coverage of the US by June.

There isn’t enough manufacturing capacity for vaccinate the entire US unless the companies decide to ignore the rest of the world.

Pfizer is slated for around 1B doses (500M people treated) next year, or about 10% of the global population.

I would estimate all high risk groups (elderly, front line workers) vaccinated by Q2'21. Then a phased roll out based on risk. If you're a healthy young 25 year old, you'll likely be one of the last to be vaccinated.

https://www.businessinsider.com/moderna-ceo-coronavirus-vacc...

"Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel told Business Insider that a coronavirus vaccine would be available to any American adult who wanted one by June."

Depends on what else gets approved. Best case is both of these are approved this year, with a couple others by the end of January. If that best case happens we could see countries opening up starting in March, with full opening up this summer.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com