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Comment by kanox | Hacker News Reader

TL;DR: People lie to pollsters.

That is exactly the opposite of what the article said.

> People tell the truth, when you ask them who they’re voting for. They really do, on average. The reason why the polls are wrong is because the people who were answering these surveys were the wrong people.

The takeaway from the article is not that people lie, but just that people who are more trusting (according to the GSS survey) are more likely to take surveys and are also more likely to vote Democratic.

> people who are more trusting...are also more likely to vote Democratic

I think this is built into the fabric of political views. If you're cautious about other people's motives, you'll want smaller government (less authority over you). The more you think folks are generally trustworthy, the less you'll fear having a larger government.

My own perception of how others act is clearly clouded by the inaccuracy of survey sources.

I wonder how many in any set think similarly about these surveys. I assume distrust is the most logical base state, hate unknown callers / blind interactions as sources of fraud, misinformation, and marketing (which I view as often leaning against the borderline of the former).

I would also hope and assume, given the religious bias correlated with Republicans in the US, that many of them are more trusting of others.

Especially if those polled fear for their jobs if they answer the 'wrong way' in the poll and others find out about it: https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1324807776510595078 -> https://www.trumpaccountability.net/

How could that tweet possibly have anything to do with polls? Any remotely scientific poll would surely be anonymous. That has nothing to do with people willingly tweeting their political views and then attempt to cover them up or expect them to be forgotten in the future.

If you get a call from an unknown caller asking "hey who're you voting for", how do you know if it's a proper scientific pollster or your employer's brother-in-law?

They're based on calling phone numbers, which are tied to identities, and the President has access to the NSA databases that correlate everyone's identities with their phones, IP addresses, etc.

If people in Congress or the President wanted to, they could absolutely find out who answered in polls that they'd vote for a candidate.

> People tell the truth, when you ask them who they’re voting for. They really do, on average.

That might have been true in the past.

From 2016-2020, Trump supporters have been loudly and repeatedly called racistNaziMisogynistHomophobe, or the polite version, "deplorable". That is not an environment that encourages honesty.

As a center right moderate I definitely feel this. Especially at work/with acquaintances where I feel compelled to just silently nod and agree with everything being said or else risk my career and social standing.

As a center right moderate, did you vote for Trump? I might use similar terms to describe my political beliefs if I was into labels, and I feel none of this. I've always been frank about my political leanings when it comes up, and no one I know has had any trouble talking about the issues while leaving the Candidates out of it. That said, given where the Republican party is right now, I can't imagine voting for any R on the ballot (and contra-wise Biden and Jerry Brown are the only two D votes I've ever cast, both entirely in opposition to the frankly scary Republican opponent, not in support of the candidate).

I did not vote...I've found similarly that issues-wise discussion is not bad, but more often than not conversation is always about the candidates themselves as a package and support for one particular policy means you support all of them.

Trump supporters do seem to differ from my view of a 'traditional republican'; if not the actions of the namesake (which I do view as the negative things you describe) what do they see in the candidate or platform being supported?

Since you did not specify what you consider a "traditional republican" to be, I'll tell you why I voted for Donald Trump: 1) No new wars started, despite media outcry in 2016 that he'd take us into WWIII; 2) Historic peace deals between Israel and its neighbors - again, in spite of accusations that Jerrod Kushner did not have any diplomatic skills and would botch anything he touched; 3) Strong federalist approach to COVID - while the media and Democrats decry Trump's approach to COVID, I appreciated his willingness to make Federal resources available to the states that requested them rather than force them onto unwilling governors; 4) His respect and support for the military - not always a favorable viewpoint for non-Americans, or even more liberal Americans, but I think has been a mainstay of Republicans for a while; 5) His support for law and order - we have to be a nation of laws and the riots and looting (not protests) that were a feature across the nation this summer that were supported by mayors, governors, and Democratic Representatives and Senators was saddening to watch; 6) His understanding that the response to COVID should not be worse than the disease itself and that the economy should be allowed to continue to operate, we cannot go into a permanent lockdown status and thrive as a country; 7) The economic growth we had pre-COVID was great as well as the economic opportunities for minorities and women.

What policies did Trump enact which you think animated the support that Trump received?

Thank you for your reply and sharing your point of view.

Answering your question: I didn't have any theory relating Trump's actual policy implementation accomplishments to support. Rather _my opinion_ is still a _belief_ that most who support the 45th president as a candidate do so based on blind charisma and an extra sweet helping of wishful thinking.

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