> It’s mathematically better, I think that armed populace has a higher chance of revolt

US is the only country in the western World who only made one real revolution.

And it was to not pay taxes, not against a true tyrant.

> And I also think the reasoning is that the anti-tyrannical populace will be much larger

The only thing that will be larger is the anti everybody else populace (tribalism, to give it a name).

USA had one major civil war and they keep killing each other like nowhere else in the World (like ten times more than the west average).

It's mathematically provable.