Comment by ogre_codes | Hacker News Reader

Comment by ogre_codes | Hacker News Reader

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> I would choose the Volvo over any newage design with huge waste of space for transport - they are meant to be a TRANSPORT vehicles not a design for driving to a shopping mall picking chicks (that dont care about transport vehicle anyway).

I would choose whichever makes sense for my business. Without pricing and reliability numbers, it's impossible to know which that might be.

The closest vehicle in Tesla's garage to this is the Tesla Cybertruck which looks bizarre, but is about $20,000 less than the nearest announced competitor. If Tesla launched a butt ugly Cybervan which was similarly functional and cost effective, you can bet it would be popular with the class of buyer who are shopping for e-Vans.

Right now I'm eyeballing the Cybertruck personally, in spite of it's appearance. Spending $20k to get a more traditional looking truck just doesn't make sense to me. The only concern I have is whether those high truck bed walls will screw things up.

> The closest vehicle in Tesla's garage to this is the Tesla Cybertruck which looks bizarre, but is about $20,000 less than the nearest announced competitor.

No, Cybertruck is competing with stuff like Ford F150. Volvo FH is a commercial truck. The nearest thing is the Tesla Semi.

The Tesla Semi doesn't have any announced pricing or an availability date so it's impossible to get an idea of how competitive price-wise it might be. This is the big problem with comparing future products.

Tesla has also hinted at a passenger van eventually... but again no date, no details.

Tesla semi costs $150k for 300 mile range and $180k for 500 mile range. https://www.tesla.com/semi

Production starts sometime in 2021 with scale production probably in 2022.

Production of Semi was supposed to start this year. According to Musk it was delayed because Tesla is still starved for batteries (a single semi consumes the same amount of cells as 10-20 Model 3 cars)

Cell bottleneck will be solved with the new battery production system recently demonstrated at battery day.

Thanks, for some reason I thought it was still a concept project and didn't chase details down. I forget entirely that they'd done a full unveil which inevitably (for Tesla) includes price announcements and pre-orders.

From the size and purpose, the Semi would be what an FH truck is.

Tesla hints many things. They need to figure out their supply chain. Commercial fleets require maintenance and spare parts.

> Commercial fleets require maintenance and spare parts.

Yep. But this is mitigated a bit by the fact that EVs tend to require massively less maintenance and spare parts.

From what I've seen, Tesla does not do service really well and that's something they will have to get down if they are going to get into commercial vehicles. Even if Tesla trucks require vastly less ongoing service, they need to have that service be good. I've heard of Tesla owners having to wait several weeks for parts, for a commercial vehicle that's a no-go.

Running gear wear on trucks is where the costs are, and an engine rebuild every 200K-750 K km depending on how they are used (local routes vs long haul).

EVs should have a substantial advantage over trucks in the brake wear department, battery overhaul costs will match or possibly be lower than the engine overhaul costs.

Put it all together and for short haul trips EVs should have an advantage and for the longer haul they are as yet impractical. Keep in mind that a 1000 liter fuel reserve is a substantial amount of energy for relatively little weight disadvantage on a vehicle that already weighs 8 tons, the equivalent in batteries weighs many times more. Some of this weight disadvantage will be compensated by regenerative braking, with a diesel vehicle that energy is converted to waste heat every time the vehicle comes to a stop.

So, overall, I think short haul EV trucks will have the edge soon, long haul it likely will be diesel for quite a while to come.

they working on that heavily right now, opening hundreds of new service centers, build a presence in europe, china, east cost+ central. They doing everything right in terms of that, and they moving fast. Tesla semi will be a major hit , but the form factor is not limited to that, volvo will get their share. To be a real #1 manufacture tesla need at least 5-6 different size models, including 2 vans , small cheap car, bigger suv for family mid size truck, a bus.

>but is about $20,000 less than the nearest announced competitor.

Tesla has a history of claiming their products will be cheaper than they turn out to be. Pretty big claim to say it's cheaper when, as of now, they haven't produced or sold a single truck. I guess it works though, because every time a competitor puts an EV truck out there, someone inevitably claims that the Cybertruck is cheaper.

They announced the Model 3 at $35,000 in 2016. The price for the standard range model on their website has fluctuated between $37,000 and $40,000 since then, and it's currently $38,000 including significantly improved specs compared to the 2016 announcement.

If the Cybertruck also ends up 15% more expensive than the original advertised price, it'll still cost dramatically less than any competitor.

> Pretty big claim to say it's cheaper when, as of now, they haven't produced or sold a single truck.

They've taken pre-orders and accepted cash, it's a contract. Tesla will sell those trucks for the announced prices.

Even using $38k as the base price of the Model 3[1], it is still a good value compared to competing electric vehicles which tend to have much lower ranges, slower charging networks, and worse performance. The Model Y competitors are also generally more expensive and have lower ranges.

They are still a bit pricy compared to non-EVs, but compared to other EVs, Teslas are not priced at a premium. If you value performance, the gap is even more significant.

> I guess it works though, because every time a competitor puts an EV truck out there, someone inevitably claims that the Cybertruck is cheaper.

It works because as I mention above, Tesla has a track record of delivering decent value. It is extremely fair to say Tesla vehicles are often behind schedule, but their pricing (again compared to other EVs) is usually extremely competitive.

[1] It was possible for quite a while to get a Model 3 for $35k, it was just a little tricky without a pre-order.

model 3 destroyed nissan leaf, which is currently at $32k if you comare leaf and model 3, oh well, not even comparable

This article is about commercial trucks which I imagine would be 10x in cost of cybertruck.

It is—as I suggest above—the closest thing Tesla has to a shipping product which competes here.

Tesla will have at least some commercial trucks. Whether they will compete directly with this or not remains to be seen. I suspect if they do, they will be price competitive for reasons in my post above.

I like the look of the Cybertruck. It's like the truck Automan would drive!

I was probably a bit unfair to the CyberTruck. The big thing for me personally is I'm not flamboyant by nature. Once the Cybertruck becomes more commonplace I'll get over it. It certainly didn't stop me from pre-ordering.

The Cybertruck will be a beast to see on the road. I love the look.

It’s a marmite look. Either love it or hate it!

Personally I hate marmite but love the truck!

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