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This argument presupposes that the voting patterns of mail in vs non mail in ballots are the same, even in the same district.

I believe an argument was made that this will not be the case.

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Thanks for pointing that out. I agree and noted that caveat in the article.

If anything can be said about the breakdown of mail-in ballots vs in-person voting it is that the former favours Biden. NV is likely to be a bit more balanced, but in no instance so far has a vote total moved towards Trump (dems told people to vote early by mail and a lot of what remains to be counted is from large urban districts that trend Democratic.)

Agreed but I've seen arguments both ways. If I had to bet, I think the Biden shift will be stronger than my prediction but I chose to adopt a more conservative assumption.

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