This argument presupposes that the voting patterns of mail in vs non mail in ballots are the same, even in the same district.
I believe an argument was made that this will not be the case.
If anything can be said about the breakdown of mail-in ballots vs in-person voting it is that the former favours Biden. NV is likely to be a bit more balanced, but in no instance so far has a vote total moved towards Trump (dems told people to vote early by mail and a lot of what remains to be counted is from large urban districts that trend Democratic.)
Agreed but I've seen arguments both ways. If I had to bet, I think the Biden shift will be stronger than my prediction but I chose to adopt a more conservative assumption.
Thanks for pointing that out. I agree and noted that caveat in the article.
this really looks like the easy reasoning that will get beaten by facts.
if that was so easy, why bother counting the votes at all? /s
We'll see, I guess :)
Not sure why you say "if that was so easy, why bother counting the votes at all?". My estimate isn't really easy in that it's based on 86% of votes counted statewide, thanks to the hard work done by election officials, poll workers, and volunteers in Nevada.