Were Trump voters not willing to admit they were going to vote for Trump? Was it something else? Did they just assume that college-educated people would prefer Biden 10-1 when it was instead 6-4 or something?
I got more poll calls than I had any interest in answering. I especially had no interest in answering a push poll, from either side. The result was that I answered none of them.
Now, if we had only one outfit doing polls so that I didn't get bombarded, and if there was no such thing as push-polling, sure, I might answer their poll questions. But as it is? No. You'll find out what I think when I vote; in the meantime; go away and leave me alone. (It's amazing how much quieter my phones are today than on Monday.)
[0] https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/10/29/2020-polls...
If, of people saying they’ll vote A, normally 100% will actually vote, and of those saying they’ll vote B, normally 80% will actually vote, the models that predict election results from poll result will correct for that.
So, if the poll says it’s 50/50, the model will predict a clear win for A, with about 55% of the vote.
If turnout increases, all extra voters will vote B, but the model might still predict that 55% (I kept the example simpler than reality will be)