First of all: I agree with you that the jury is out. We are all speculating. I might be wrong.

The thing I see is this: you can also add compressed encodings for any ISA. And that has its own costs (it’s harder to decode and it’s harder on software that wants to do bidirectional analysis of machine code). So “my isa has shortcomings but it’s cool because compression” isn’t a perfect argument since if your isa lacks those shortcomings then you still benefit from compression and you don’t need it as much, which is better.