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Comment by AlexTWithBeard | Hacker News Reader

Every article like that should be accompanied with a disclaimer. For example:

- the author followed his own advice and invested half of his life savings into an S&P 500 put option with maturity in March 2021

- the author did not put his money where his mouth and wimped out

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I just made my first start and invested a few thousand GBP into a vanguard index (Global Balanced Fund) 2 weeks ago. I have lost -4.61% / £466.58 already

Don't get me wrong, not making this as a statement or looking for sympathy.

I knew the risks were there, and I had planned to keep this vested for at least 5 years, so hopefully it will recoup the losses.

But yeah, may not have been the smartest decision.

My tip for ETFs and long term investing is to never ever look at your portfolio. It's an investment over decades, not months.

Yeah seriously, don't look at the numbers for a few years. I'm not knowledgeable at all about investing, which is why my savings are in Vanguard index funds to begin with. I have two that are up nearly 70% over the last 10 years or so. If you buy and hold these things you're investing in the long term functioning and health of the economy, which has proven over the last few centuries to be a decent bet. If civilizational collapse messes with your returns the state of your index funds will be the least of your worries.

That's how I look at it. If societal collapse or the complete and utter ruination of our economy wrecks my portfolio then my wrecked portfolio is the least of my problems! I've been investing since 1987 so I've been through a few market crashes. What I can tell you is that whole time value of money thing is really powerful. I look at my portfolio once per year to see how things are going and what my retirement outlook is looking like.

The biggest mistake new investors make is sell when they see a red negative number. As long as you don't do that you will almost certainly recoup your losses.

> The biggest mistake new investors make is sell when they see a red negative number.

On the other hand, often used reason for bad trading performance is sticking to the losers and not riding the winners. So who is right? Or you think this trading maxim does not apply to the "investing" that you refer to?

If you aren't me then you should stick to Bogleheads Lazy Portfolios.

You haven't lost anything yet, as you haven't sold them.

If you hold on, history shows that these things grow at an average of 8% annually, even accounting for depressions.

> You haven't lost anything yet, as you haven't sold them.

That's not how it works. The difference between a realized loss and an unrealized loss is only tax consequences. If your shares have a book value of $1200 from when you bought them yesterday and a market value of $1000 right now, you could have bought the same number of shares today and had an additional $200 in cash. You're holding the same number of shares in both scenarios but your net worth is $200 lower if you bought yesterday. Obviously any dividends received since the time of purchase would change the net outcome.

The "you don't lose until you sell" meme is self-rationalization popular on reddit and in the Bitcoin community.

This is why most people employ (often unwittingly) dollar cost averaging (DCA). I say often unwittingly because that's what you're actually doing when contributing to a 401K and for the non-expert investor, it's actually a decent investment strategy. What screws up the long-term benefits of DCA is if you go and start moving your money around after realizing a loss in a particular investment fund.

Id call 10K a bit more than a few K

https://www.forbes.com/sites/danrunkevicius/

https://www.linkedin.com/in/dan-runkevicius/

I don't see relevant investing experience.

Mmmm. That seems like a cheap shot to me.

"Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." --Keynes (maybe)

I think it's fair to make the observation that the fundamentals are all out of whack and that investor confidence doesn't seem to correlate with the greater economic picture without being required to gamble your life savings on it.

I actually don't think it's fair to "make the observation".

There are multiple issues at play here:

Who is paying this person and what do they have to gain from people panicking and selling shares?

How is this an observation given the title? It's a proclamation. I can write the exact same article and say that the current climate is here to say.

Putting your investments where your mouth is shows that you don't have a specific agenda and that you're being honest and truthful in your writing. I don't advise people to do things I wouldn't do, why should we give market "journalists" a pass?

If you literally write an article proclaiming "The Stock Market is on the Edge of a Historic Crash" then there's no honest reason why if you wrote that and believe it that you would have any problem whatsoever in showing the audience how you adjusted your trading strategy. Anything besides that to me is horseshoe, which is why I never read or pay attention to these articles.

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