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Could an indie developer tackle this and try to offer a sane-replacement open source self-hosted jira alternative for small-medium orgs?

Or it needs to be a big guy forcefully, as in nobody got fired for hiring IBM

Or it could be indie commercial. I work for a shop which, due to regulatory reasons, cannot have some things live premises.

I don't think it needs to be big guy, but it needs to be better than what else is out there. That's a high bar. There are plenty of good tools.