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I'm not commenting on the specific valuation, but I think you're looking at their valuation without probabilities priced in.

A $30b valuation is a very rational valuation if you assessed there was a 50% chance of a $0 valuation and a 50% chance of a $60b valuation.

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Well, you'd also have to have 100% risk tolerance for that to make sense. Something like 50% chance of 0 and 50% chance of 100 billion might be more realistic for a binary outcome valuation like that.

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