Not saying that it _should_ cause them to reconsider, just that it might, and we won't really know until we see what happens in December-January.
The coldest month is January, and by that point, you only see the die-hards. It's not just psychological, but also requires being prepared to deal with the cold, ice, and road salt. For instance I have a dedicated winter bike with studded tires, and a pre-rusted chain. ;-) Oddly enough, the people who are out in the worst weather always seem to have the biggest grins on their faces.
So while I feel smug about being one of the die-hards, I also don't even try to encourage people to ride through the winter until they've at least acclimatized themselves to riding regularly in normal weather.
Part of it is that I'm just addicted to cycling. But I'm also not strong enough to be a competitive cyclist, and don't live in an area with extensive mountain biking. So I have to look for ways to make it more interesting. I also love being outdoors during the winter, so I also go cross country skiing, or just take long walks.
Surely, folks who have engaged in real survival sports would laugh at me, but still, arriving at work on my bike at -20 F feels like I've been on some kind of an adventure. My friends think I'm crazy, but I remind them that regular people go to work, outdoors, in colder temperatures, and they survive. The old saying is: "There's no such thing as bad weather, just bad clothing."
On the other hand, my spouse has a job where you have to pay extra for parking, so she either rides her bike or takes the bus depending on schedule. Right now during the COVID, the bus service has been cut way back, so it's 100% bike for her. My kids are both college students, and don't have cars, so a bike is their only option.
I can't imagine -20F though! (I have done +46C in the shade and that was quite an experience)
I remember Sydney had some fairly decent cycling routes when I was there. Perhaps not when compared to Copenhagen and Amsterdam, but they always got me from Alexandria to the CBD without riding on the road (this was in 2010).
I'm a bit late to the party, and not the person you asked, but I have bicycled through a few winters in the past. The winter road conditions where I live can be anything from dry and clear to wet to slushy to snowy to icy, and various things in between.
I have to admit that part of the reason was "because I can". As a kid, I was given (or at least somehow got) the impression that bicycling in winter was dangerous, and that it was a summertime activity. Once I realized sometime in my early 20's that that's not how it has to be, I liked to show myself that it could be done. (I fully realize that it can, in fact, be dangerous especially if the infrastructure for cycling isn't supportive or if you don't realize that you have to approach things differently than in dry weather, but I found I was able to do it safely where I live. You just need to keep your wits with you. There's still something nice about knowing that (or if and when) it can be done; it gives a feeling of freedom, and you also become quite mindful of your physical environment while riding.)
A second reason would be that, living in a city with good public transport and decent walking/cycling infrastructure, I've never owned a car. I like it that way, largely due to the ecological costs of private driving. And while public transport is a fine option, there was something nice about riding in crisp air to start the day rather than being stuck in a packed bus or a train. Not being dependent on public transport schedules is a plus, as is the exercise.
Riding in some winter conditions (even snowy or icy) is a lot easier than in others. Plowed or packed snow is fine, as are slightly icy surfaces, as long as the ice is even; studded tires help a lot. Fresh snow that hasn't been plowed, even if it's just an inch or two thick, is a lot harder to ride in unless you have pretty wide tires with good tread, but it becomes possible if you do. Packed and frozen slush are the worst because they're both slippery and uneven. I'd generally not ride (at least with the bike and equipment I had back then) for significant distances if the conditions were like that.
In some sense you could say that grasping the nuances of the conditions could be a hobby in itself.
One of the obvious downsides is that appropriate clothing is more difficult when you have to account for the physical exertion and the cold weather.
Riding is almost inevitably slower than in dry conditions, both because of safety and because any snow makes the riding physically more strenuous. It might easily also became significantly slower than other modes of transportation, and the travel time on longer commutes might become less predictable due to variable conditions, so you might not want to commute by bike for longer distances in snowy/icy conditions unless you're pretty dedicated for some other reason.
I'm also not sure I'd do it in a location where the infrastructure is bad enough to make it seriously risky.
And once you have a car, it's often a lot more convenient than a bike, because you don't end up all sweaty at the end of the day.
Also sweat never was an issue for me, when I bike to work I go at commute speed, not exercise levels.
People in online cycle commuting discussions often have... ideas about speed that don't match mine.
I use "being sweaty" as shorthand for "I don't care if you claim a ??? mile commute should take 10-15 minutes, it takes me 40 minutes, and I'll thank you not to insult me by calling me inexperienced or lazy"
[1] https://www.bicycling.com/rides/a20039883/9-ways-to-make-bik...
[2] https://www.bicycling.com/news/a23508352/netherlands-cellpho...
I'm fortunate that I don't sweat very much, my commute is only 4 miles each way, and I can tailor my schedule around the weather. So I start out early before the sun has cleared the trees, and ride slowly. As a result I'm not particularly sweaty when I arrive at work. Also, I have a casual-dress job with no public interaction.
I live on a street that happens to be a preferred route for cyclists commuting to and from the downtown area. So I see a lot of people on bikes. Most of the commuters are in fact just wearing normal street clothes. I don't even own any cycling-specific clothing.
I’m sure roadies dress that way in the Netherlands.
The difference is that US cyclists are mostly roadies because you need to really want to bike to do so, which in the Netherlands roadies are a minority of cyclists because it’s just the normal way to move around.
And on anything longer (again, with hills), it's definitely a "damn, I hope I won't start smelling too bad until I get back home".
Now I live in the UK and you have to be a true believer to cycle during winter when it's not as cold but it's damp, raining, and dark (with poor public lighting). I walk, which is already a commitment.
One further problem in the UK, in my opinion, is that roads have always been built, and, worse, continue to be built, the absolute narrowest possible. Very often it is already tight for cars, so cycle lanes are out of the question and cycling is very dangerous. Ideally, all new roads (at least urban and in residential areas) should be wide enough in order to include a good size bike lane segregated from cars... Once again, though, there is no long term plan, at best they're just winging it with a quite paint job on the road.