We are locking down far in excess of simply not overwhelming our hospitals.
From the get-go, there were articles pointing out the numerical reality that it would take 10 years to reach herd immunity with a curve flattened to match ICU capacity. Those calculations were slightly too pessimistic due to a myopic focus on ventilators, and the therapeutics have evolved since then.
So we were flattening the curve to delay a mass spread until a vaccine? Doesn't add up. Masks are as effective as the candidate vaccines will be at 100% use. Not everyone will get vaccinated. Maybe we delay until masks+vaccine push R0<1. Also doesn't add up. The new infection numbers are steady NOW, R0 has averaged around unity for months.
Look, it's hard to summarize a strategy when there is no strategy. There's just been reaction.
If we want to say the lockdowns have been worse, let's start by answering:
1. What is the value of a human life, in dollars?
2. What is the cost of a preventable long-term injury? (In terms of diminished inherent value of life, diminished economic impact, whatever.)
3. What is the cost of a life spent without indoor restaurants for months to years?
Take 1 and 2, and weigh them against 3 + the economic losses due to lockdown.
https://www.rt.com/news/496482-study-covid-hunger-children-l...
The median life-span of an American is 78. The median age of death from Covid is 82. The more rational statistic is life-years lost than # of deaths. If a toddler dies, they have lost 70+ years of life. If an 80 year old dies, they might have lost just a couple years of life. Economic hardships for young adults will reduce their lifespans by several years, not counting drug and alcohol addiction, suicide, etc.
If I could trade a few of my years at 80+ to ensure a better quality of life for my child I would take that in a second. Practically every parent would.
The right path forward is to take appropriate precautions to protect the vulnerable while everyone else goes back to work. We may still have a lot to learn, but we know so much more about this disease than we did when we took "14 days to slow the spread." It's time to open up.
I'm glad you're willing to nobly sacrifice your life, but what if we could save those 10,000 kids per month without opening back up? What if we could save more lives by keeping essential services operational and non-essential businesses closed with targeted government interventions to keep people fed and housed? Would you be willing to do that?
https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2020/07/17/870483369/your...
https://bgr.com/2020/08/11/coronavirus-immunity-common-cold-...
If someone tells you that they have a plan to stop the coronavirus from being a public health issue at all, they're misinformed or untruthful.
The best evidence we have indicates that recovered patients will retain a high level of immunity for at least several years.
https://www.jimmunol.org/content/early/2020/09/03/jimmunol.2...
At the beginning of the pandemic, I thought it would be similar to a more deadly flu or something with long-lived immunity for a given strain once you got it. At this point, I am assuming less and less. We found it wasn't even a lung disease, but a disease of the angiotensin system. We assumed ventilators would help, but often they just mushed damaged lung tissue. There's been tons of snake-oil cures floating around too. People are starting to show evidence of long term damage. Let's measure things before we make irreversible decisions.