Second: When do we begin to consider that? Maybe in 1868, when the 14th Amendment was ratified?
Semantics. The point is that it was intended to serve a society which no longer exists.
The society that is currently American society is not the same in scale, scope, complexity, culture or tenor to American society in the 18th century. It's the same only in the way the Ship of Theseus is the same after having been gradually transformed from a small boat to a modern aircraft carrier, which is to say, fundamentally different in every way that matters.
>Second: When do we begin to consider that? Maybe in 1868, when the 14th Amendment was ratified?
How about now?
The Electoral College had one job - to prevent a demagogue like Trump from taking power. He was elected by a fraction of a fraction of the populace, and a minority of those who voted, thanks in no small part to a system in which only a few votes in one or two swing states actually ever matter. In a truly representative democracy, Trump would never have happened.
If it’s just a straight majority, then rural areas despite being just under half the population will never have political representation again, and indeed that disenfranchisement is part of what led to Trump’s victory in the first place.
Hunter games here we come.
Trying to disenfranchise rural areas is not going to work out well, to put it mildly. An accommodation needs to be reached between rural and urban America. I just wish we had a presidential candidate who I thought had a chance of accomplishing that.
They've also controlled at least one house of the legislature for all but two years of that time -- and for all but a few months had enough votes to veto all proposals. Changing the Electoral College wouldn't affect that.
So I'd argue that "never have political representation again" is unlikely. They hardly seem disenfranchised, except in their own imagination.
No serious model calls Trump’s chances ‘very good’ right now. The Economist says it’s 10%, and FiveThirtyEight says 20%.
So, we’re looking at 50% of the last 6.
There is no overweighting except if you imagine a Trump victory.