Am I missing out on content from Facebook/Twitter/Instagram because I'm not connected indirectly to everyone in their gardens? Sure, but I'd argue it's low quality content that was only a drain on my mental health.
I guess I'm trying to say, I think it's about the individual success and not the % of market share.
You could argue maybe A) won't work or isn't possible or needed, but I feel B) myself a lot. For example I meet someone and want to talk to them, but it's likely they might suggest we chat via Skype or Discord or something like that, and if I don't want to use that service I'm often out of luck.
That, personally, is what bothers me the most - that network effects seem inherently anti-competitive because they force me to use a platform I wouldn't otherwise want to use, only because they purposefully make their software unable to communicate with competing platforms.
For all of the open protocols and specifications we have from HTTP to TLS to HTML and literally one thousand others, we just re-use them over and over to create closed systems that can't talk to each other, which feels like going backwards. Sure it's great all of our computers speak TCP, UDP, TLS, HTTP, and so on. But they don't all speak iMessage, Zoom, Skype, Discord, Reddit, Twitter, Mastdodon, Matrix, Slack, etc etc. I still feel constantly locked-in to all of these platforms just when I want to communicate to someone that happens to be on it, and the area is certainly not progressing because the fight to gain this huge market share of users is never-ending.
Ideally, that is what I would love to end via federation. If I could actually use some type of FOSS and open protocol, and actually talk to any other person I wanted to with it, and I wasn't forced to use a certain platform, service, company, and give them all of my data in the process. I don't see any way for this to be achieved, but I can always dream.
Okay, so you should subscribe to 5 services to see all the latest anime you should see. You want to support the artists. But, some of them have horrible experiences, and you are locked into it because you want to _legally_ watch this show.
It's that if your platform is exclusive enough, you also become very slow to innovate.
We've seen time and again that most innovation comes from constrained settings. But big corps just want to maximize money, they don't care about improvements. That is IMHO the block stopping us from actually tackling a lot of identified and solveable problems we face this century.
My favorite video game is Halo 3. It never died, I just left.
There certainly are UX problems that the current federated social media projects have. They're not technically unsolvable, it's just that current federated social media projects don't want to solve them for some reason. That's what I'm trying to address with my project (that's not yet ready to be demonstrated, sorry).
The primary problem that the current federated social media projects are facing is that there's no global user search. At all. You sign up for a Mastodon account on the instance of your liking, and now what? Sure you can follow Eugen and like the cat pictures he reposts. Cats are cute. But how do you find people you already know without asking every one of them whether they have a Mastodon account? You don't. And that's how you not build a useful social media service. Every single social media service that has had any semblance of success offered an easy way to bootstrap your social graph — be it a detailed global search feature and rich profiles to go with it or the ability to import your friend/contact list from somewhere else. That alone should be telling.
There are technical solutions to this, like making a DHT out of instance servers that could be used to link the user IDs on centralized platforms to ActivityPub URLs. Even if said centralized platforms refuse API access to instance admins, there's still machine-readable GDPR data export to take advantage of. It can be done. It's just going to take some time.