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Comment by mrkstu | Hacker News Reader

For those so certain that the Republican Senate is going to ram though someone, there are a few moderates left, and they've already decided thing can wait until after the election:

"So far the following GOP Senators have pledged that they will not consider a Supreme Court appointment until after the next inauguration.

Susan Collins Chuck Grassley Lisa Murkowski"

[0]:https://twitter.com/yashar/status/1307115333669580807

The Senate is currently split 53/47, I don't believe Romney has addressed the issue yet. No one should get too bitter and divisive just yet.

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When push comes to shove, republicans fall in line.

Susan Collins will go on record saying she thinks trump jr is just too good of a candidate to not accept the nomination, and that'll be the end of it

As the glib aphorism goes, Democrats want to fall in love, and Republicans want to fall in line.

Hope you're right: https://www.axios.com/trump-ginsburg-supreme-court-10bf5f37-... . The threat of withholding money if they don't comply has got to be pretty effective to bring any independent thinkers in line.

Another case for removing big money from politics

Huge caveat: of those 3, only Murkowski actually made her statement after RBG passed. Collins made her statement hypothetically earlier in the campaign, and Grassley made his hypothetical statement back in 2018 during that election cycle.

So far, Murkowski is the only confirmed GOP defector, and 4 total defectors are needed to prevent nomination hearings before the election.

3 will be allowed to defect and Pence will be the tie breaking vote.

All of this is coordinated, all of this is staged.

Do you have a source for such a direct claim?

It's just how these things work. A few senators are allowed to defect and make a hoopla, but nobody wants to be the final defector that changes the actual outcome, because his or her political career would be over.

McCain famously did it during his last vote, because he knew he was going to die shortly thereafter.

There's a bit of difference between what you're outlining and "coordinated" as the GP mentions. One seems far less nefarious and just in line with the realities of certain democracies and re-election.

It's my prediction of the future.

Like anyone can take Collins at her word anymore.

She’s going to furrow her brow and try to explain why flip flopping and selling her vote in exchange for McConnell not killing her post-senate career (she’s down by ~12 points to her democratic challenger) is fine because McConnell had already learned his lesson.

Most of these statements were made in 2018. A lot has changed since then, and these statements where made when Samuel Alito's retirement was being floated. RBG is a totally different ball game.

Yeah I wouldn't bet too long on that. McConnell knows how to twist arms, they will crack to pressure and get a solid conservative in there before the election. Of that I'm sure.

I’d say he could also wait until after. Last time, the vacancy motivated Republican more than Democratic turnout — and if Republicans don’t win the Senate again, there’s still time after the election to do the appointment.

There are almost a dozen GOP Senate seats up at risk. A vote before the election gives them a solid victory to campaign on to their base, which might be enough to keep those seats in the GOP in November.

Waiting until after the election does nothing to improve their electoral prospects, so for McConnell there's no point in waiting.

If those senators stall their own party on the highest visibility vote of their careers, then they're done.

50/50 split means the Vice President decides. Game over.

The sensible side of me would deem this blind optimism but… Maybe, just maybe, senators respecting Justice Ginsburg’s last wish will be the first step on a long road towards healing our toxic political polarization.

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