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Comment by rsynnott | Hacker News Reader

> Can't blame people start to believe with these kind of predictions.

Agilent Technologies stock price will go up on Monday. Alcoa Corporation's stock price will go up on Monday. [... all the rest of the NYSE] Zynerba pharmaceuticals stock price will go up on Monday. Zyzec In's stock price will go up on Monday.

I've just made about 6500 predictions. Some of them will come true. Based on that, would you believe everything I say?

If someone makes enough predictions, some of them will come true or at least can be read as having come true. This doesn't mean that you should believe people when they predict things that they could not possibly predict.

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A lot of things Q says isn't verifiable yet, and maybe to most not believable but that doesn't make them categoricly "false". He predicted Christ Church hours before it happened and even said it will probably be a mass shooting this time outside the US. Although he claimed Europe as the country it might happen. He also predicted the El Paso shooting 48 hours in advance but wrongly claimed it happens in the next 24 hours. These are very close predictions and you also have to consider that an exact prediction would start people wondering if he couldn't have prevented them.

> ...you also have to consider that an exact prediction would start people wondering if he couldn't have prevented them.

This sounds an awful lot like the "When he's right, he should be lauded, but when he's wrong it's because of $valid_reason." Am I summarizing what you're saying accurately?

And if so, I have to ask- is there anything which would convince you that QAnon is untrustworthy and/or full of BS? If so, what would that be?

> He predicted Christ Church hours before it happened and even said it will probably be a mass shooting this time outside the US.

Hold on, what did it predict exactly? Did it say "there'll be a mass shooting in New Zealand, on a specific day" or just "something violent will happen somewhere, maybe"?

You're being taken in by a very old technique; make many, many, very vague predictions. Look at the daily news every day, either personally, or farm it out to your fanbase. Cross-reference the daily news with your library of predictions, and take anything that could possibly be read as predictive. Rinse, repeat. Nostradamus was a well-known offender (or, rather, he made the predictions, his fanbase did the rest). See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Postdiction#Skepticism

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