Nuclear war is still possible. Acid rain is still bleaching forests and marshes near me. Our economy is kinda hosed at the moment. Endless conflict in the Middle East/SW Asia. Uiyghurs are enslaved. And of course resource depletion and climate change.
It's not sunshine and lolipops.
If issues command more attention time each day they feel more important. Generalplan Ost might have killed twice as many people at the same time as the Holocaust but most people never heard of it because it didn't get that much prime time. And the Bangladesh or Indonesian genocides flew under the radar for most people around the world.
Lots of things are possible but the likelihood, and the fact that this is hammered into your head via every channel make all the difference. Nuclear war is possible but if FB would throw this possibility at you every day I can guarantee you'd see it with very different eyes and feelings.
Just going back a few decades you had things like AIDS or the hole in the ozone layer. So each generation had their own burden to bear. And things like global warming aren't something that hit one particular generation (unless it triggers a catastrophic and quickly unfolding event), it just erodes away the niceties of life with each generation.
For real? Imagine having lived through a global depression, fighting a world war on the other side of the planet and watching an entire society vapourized by nuclear weapons, all in the span of a decade.
>I might as well enjoy my money while I can do things with it.
You should always enjoy your money, because you can't take it with you.
What society was that?
It wasn't. Japan and its society are still there, even the cities those bombs were dropped on weren't vaporized in their entirety, nor were their societies.
Can’t find text online but it’s a good story. Most humans want to live when older, even if circumstances bad.
As for the future, you may consider a few things:
1. What will happen of everyone sensible to problems lives a life of empty hedonism? Rather than trying to improve them.
2. Will the change really happen so fast that death will be preferable? See the story above. Young you can not reliably plan for what older you will consider early of living.
3. Certainly your analysis cautions against working to death in a job you hate to enjoy it all at 65. But, that plan is not a good idea even if the world at 65 is paradise. These are your most capable years and it makes sense to enjoy them.
In my own case, I worked really hard for about three years, built a working business, and now work a moderate amount on it. (I mean really hard. Sacrificing three years can be rational, sacrificing 30-40 is not. And I still did some memorable things in that time, like travel)
The other option is to pick some work which is moderately enjoyable, and leaves ample free time and mental space to pursue your interests.
Or work you love for itself.
But again, I fail to see what the end of the world does to either of these calculations. In my view the hate your life then retire then die was obsolete regardless.
However, there is a fourth option that presents itself regarding the future apocalypse: work against it. For instance, if you have the technical skills, there is a booming field in renewable energy or carbon extraction.
What about animals specifically? Current nature reserves exist because people in the past decided to make them. You can be part of making one.
Or you can make a lot of money and fund these causes directly.
If everybody gives up hope then hope is lost. My expected future scenario is so grim it startles my parents. But I also think we could still avert much of and it’s worth trying.
As for the recession, that’s far too short term to worry about. If you’re posting here you surely have the skills to avoid it. I came into the market through the 2008-09 recession. Statistically, it was worse for my cohort, but my friends are doing just fine. It lowers results on average, but that doesn’t mean all individual results are disastrous.
I had to wake up early for work today and didn't get enough sleep, I'm sure I'll care less about this situation after I take a nap and keep ignoring it like the rest of the world, I guess. I'll have to look into changing careers to something a little more noble, though, I guess.
It requires a bunch of upfront work, but then you’re free. For hedonism or more useful purposes. (Though directly working on the problem is more effective than what I suggest)
And yeah, 68% in 50 years is a lot. Our default trajectory is very bad. But if all those who see this collapse into hopelessness, what chance do we have?
And the book is just a short story. A cautionary tale against believing that a happy life can be hedonism in youth with a planned early end. Most older people, it turns out, still want to live, once they get older.
Doing this and finding the most fulfilling path through it is the premise of 80,000 Hours.
Long before the economic system will collapse you will have a lot chances to buy properties make money from stocks and build to prepare for a potential collapse.
If you invest now and prepare for a dystopian future you will be well prepared when and if it arrives. If you waste your money on goods and experiences you will instead face the same destiny as so many others.
But I guess it's different ideologies, by going "all in" as you suggest you simply add haste and helps to ensure that such a dystopian future is actually going to become reality.
I am on the other hand preparing, trying to become self sustainable and lower my consuming to such a degree I don't need any income from any other source than my investments. This will help reduce emissions, by "enjoying the world" you will help to create emissions. Who told you cannot enjoy life as the same time you plan for a shitty future? Plan for the worst, hope for the best.
This is a good talk about the economics but you can take it further than that:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8-Li_sFNc4Q
Since I've started to follow this mindset I have moved to the countryside, sold my car, started to grow my own vegetables, got chicken from a specific race that is threatened of extinction (thus helping its continued existance) and stopped purchasing unnecessary stuff. I can already feel how I have improved my life in such a way that I have more money than ever before and I can save about 50% of my income.
This must be subjective, since to me it is most certainly already here and just intensifying, rapidly.