Comment by openasocket | Hacker News Reader

Comment by openasocket | Hacker News Reader

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I'm sure there's a couple people reading about this and other events in Belarus and wondering why Russia is so involved with Belarus like this. I thought I'd add a little bit on context. Like Ukraine, Belarus serves as a buffer between NATO and Russia, and was once a part of the Soviet Union. But Belarus is especially important to Russia because of Kaliningrad: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kaliningrad . It's a part of Russia that is completely separate from the rest of the country, on the Baltic Sea wedged between Poland and Lithuania. Kaliningrad is heavily militarized, and in any NATO-Russian conflict Kaliningrad would play a vital role. And the country of Belarus is directly between Kaliningrad and the rest of Russia. Any Russian war plan would hinge on being able to move troops through Belarus. I would expect Russia to pull out all the stops to defend their interests here

EDIT: sorry, Belarus does not directly connect to Kaliningrad, there is a gap of about 50 miles with Lithuania and Poland on either side. But the general point still stands

I just want to clarify Belarus does _not_ border Kalinigrad. You'd either have to pass Lithuania or Poland.

If that happens, the Baltic states should be worried.

In my opinion, it won't though. It's neither a threat nor a direct strategic advantage. It won't connect Kalinigrad. Belarus is landlocked. The population did not and is not asking for Russia assistance in any way, only Lukashenka did. While not super friendly, they're friendlier than to the EU bloc. I think it's just not worth the trouble and an eventual net-loss.

Unless, they have bigger plans, of course.

I've thought your general point was based on the fact that they were connected?

In an a NATO-Russian conflict, having free movement of Russian troops through Belarus means you only have a 50 mile gap to fight through to link up with Kaliningrad, as opposed to over 300 miles directly from the rest of Russia. At 50 miles Kaliningrad and Russian forces fighting from Belarus could have overlapping SAM cover and MLRS artillery support, it's well within the combat radius of attack helicopters, etc. And there are railway lines around that corridor that, once seized, would enable efficient transport of material.

But there is still no border between Russia and Belarus.

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