All of this to say, it depends on what you value :)
My complaint about all these articles is prices have barely changed in NY and SF but they all like to proclaim some huge shift. Every time I check to see if there really are major discounts and I’m disappointed.
From my searching in NYC prices, it seems like this is happening not in average prices but in the bottom of the market, and within specific neighborhoods. West Village prices aren't going to drop, but some places like say Astoria, Gowanus, Williamsburg, Greenpoint, and the like are going to have more decent places hit some record lows. I recently found a place 5 blocks from me that was 1.2K cheaper a month. Yes, it lacked some amenities and the location is worse, but that type of gap would have never existed pre-pandemic.
I know someone who explicitly moved into my neighborhood off of one of these deals, and without it they would have been in a much cheaper neighborhood. I suspect that type of movement is going to have ripple effects into outer borough pricing which could then make cheaper space.
I think we also are still not done seeing the shoe fall. These moves take time, even if already planned. The sublet market is going to shit in most cities on the seller side, which won't be reflected until those leases end. West Village prices might not fall in 2020, but they may in 2021. As time goes on with this pandemic, we also have to factor in that stagnation can also effectively be a drop.
I personally do think because of the eviction moratorium that we will see bigger decreases to come, but I also think it will rebound hard in main areas as you say because everyone always wants to be in the Village
There was an interesting article in the guardian newspaper early in the UK lockdown that looked at the implicit social contract in city life - I may live in a small apartment, perhaps even sharing it with several others, but that is less important when the city is outside my door, it's just somewhere to sleep. If the city effectively ceases to be outside your door for weeks or months, you may decide that having a bigger place of your own with your own outdoor space is actually a pretty good prospect. And that thought may not go away even when things open up again.
I think the key here is that even in the pandemic, while things have adapted and taken a different form, this isn't true. We lost some things, but solutions have popped up. Due to outdoor dining, in many ways the streets in my area have become more pedestrian friendly. Many blocks are actually now shut down to cars and are designated explicitly for pedestrians.
It's back, and pretty vibrant, in the small city I live in now. But that social contract in a small city is different anyway - even pretty near the centre I have a good sized house and some outdoor space of my own.
That stereotyping goes both ways, as this is nothing like my walk to my gym.
> My gym is 2 blocks away. Within 2 blocks I have about 10 restaurants.
Does that density hold for the 30 minute walk radius from your dwelling in all directions? There's a big difference between living in the "main street" area of a suburban area and that type of environment.