As for "white flight" it's more of a "white collar flight" where people with money and resources and higher income remote jobs will leave as long as living conditions suck.
Right now, I've basically reallocated my budget of city activities towards local restaurants, and I've been eating a ton of great delivery. As the cases have slowed, I'm cautiously considering outdoor dining. Either way, I'm eating great food right now.
I live in Brooklyn, so Prospect Park (central park of the borough) is always nice for walks or distanced picnics with friends. My local neighborhood is also just generally pleasant for walks. Many outdoor farmers markets are still in full swing.
There's an outdoor climbing gym in Dumbo that I can walk to from my apartment, and I go there now as well even. Full contact tracing, check-in/out, reservation system, the whole nine yards. Not many places have a large outdoor climbing gym.
All of this is also powered by people actually following mask laws and it being summer. I'm fully aware winter is going to be less fun, but I'm ready to weather that and order lots of good delivery.
> As for "white flight" it's more of a "white collar flight" where people with money and resources and higher income remote jobs will leave as long as living conditions suck.
Well put, and I think that will be a big positive for cities if it continues.
In fact the nature is much larger than the city, and it’s most entirely empty if you aren’t intentionally visiting the most popular spots.
And I understand the stereotype of the techie who thinks Yosemite Valley reservations is the only way to enjoy nature, but I don’t think that’s me. I’ve been on dozens of trips to the Sierras and I’m fairly experienced with the various permit systems. That said, I’m sure there are still less-travelled gems that I haven’t discovered. :)
You can't beat the efficiency of an urban environment though.
All of this to say, it depends on what you value :)
My complaint about all these articles is prices have barely changed in NY and SF but they all like to proclaim some huge shift. Every time I check to see if there really are major discounts and I’m disappointed.
From my searching in NYC prices, it seems like this is happening not in average prices but in the bottom of the market, and within specific neighborhoods. West Village prices aren't going to drop, but some places like say Astoria, Gowanus, Williamsburg, Greenpoint, and the like are going to have more decent places hit some record lows. I recently found a place 5 blocks from me that was 1.2K cheaper a month. Yes, it lacked some amenities and the location is worse, but that type of gap would have never existed pre-pandemic.
I know someone who explicitly moved into my neighborhood off of one of these deals, and without it they would have been in a much cheaper neighborhood. I suspect that type of movement is going to have ripple effects into outer borough pricing which could then make cheaper space.
I think we also are still not done seeing the shoe fall. These moves take time, even if already planned. The sublet market is going to shit in most cities on the seller side, which won't be reflected until those leases end. West Village prices might not fall in 2020, but they may in 2021. As time goes on with this pandemic, we also have to factor in that stagnation can also effectively be a drop.
I personally do think because of the eviction moratorium that we will see bigger decreases to come, but I also think it will rebound hard in main areas as you say because everyone always wants to be in the Village
There was an interesting article in the guardian newspaper early in the UK lockdown that looked at the implicit social contract in city life - I may live in a small apartment, perhaps even sharing it with several others, but that is less important when the city is outside my door, it's just somewhere to sleep. If the city effectively ceases to be outside your door for weeks or months, you may decide that having a bigger place of your own with your own outdoor space is actually a pretty good prospect. And that thought may not go away even when things open up again.
I think the key here is that even in the pandemic, while things have adapted and taken a different form, this isn't true. We lost some things, but solutions have popped up. Due to outdoor dining, in many ways the streets in my area have become more pedestrian friendly. Many blocks are actually now shut down to cars and are designated explicitly for pedestrians.
It's back, and pretty vibrant, in the small city I live in now. But that social contract in a small city is different anyway - even pretty near the centre I have a good sized house and some outdoor space of my own.
That stereotyping goes both ways, as this is nothing like my walk to my gym.
> My gym is 2 blocks away. Within 2 blocks I have about 10 restaurants.
Does that density hold for the 30 minute walk radius from your dwelling in all directions? There's a big difference between living in the "main street" area of a suburban area and that type of environment.
The retail businesses in the city are open, with precautions, just like in the suburbs. That isn't really a difference. The difference is that shops and restaurants in the city were more plentiful and better to begin with.
Now, try getting food (restaurant or grocery) delivery for a reasonable price in your typical suburb. Suburban folks didn't get stuff delivered before COVID, they hopped in their car. Many suburbs and exurbs don't really do delivery outside of your typical pizza places, and if they do they cost a lot for each delivery. I know a more rural friend who constantly has delivery apps cancel due to a lack of available drivers.
The city already had the delivery advantage in the first place, which is in turn a COVID advantage. I know people who get delivery for 100% of their goods and don't own a car at all, and these deliveries were far cheaper than the suburbs due to the density.
Not only that, when the only safe thing to do is go outside, I think the city wins, at least for me. City dwellers already walk and go outside more than people in the suburbs. In contrast, my relatives in the suburbs and exurbs can't really go on walks outside of their sub-development because the sidewalks disappear and it turns into a 55-mph zone.