"But I now realize that this is the wrong framing because simply staying alive is an inadequate goal for a company. Founders start companies to find product market fit and grow. Venture capital is designed to speed growth, not to extend runway."

PG says in his essay "How Not to Die": "If you can just avoid dying, you get rich. That sounds like a joke, but it's actually a pretty good description of what happens in a typical startup. It certainly describes what happened in Viaweb. We avoided dying till we got rich."

Aaron pre-empts this by saying that things have changed about the availability of funding to competent founders over the past 10 years, so the advice should change. I don't buy that. Shutting down early and raising new money for a new startup may give you a greater chance of the huge exit, but not dying is the best way to maximize likelihood of becoming rich. Maybe not unicorn rich, but FU money rich.