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Comment by nemo44x | Hacker News Reader

Unless there is actual data it’s probably best to not trust your memory. Every time you remember something the reality of it changes. Memory is lossy. Bias and selection are favored over improvement or precision of recall. Every recollection is inferior to the previous one.

I have a few memories of extensive fire fly experiences back in the day. But when I really think about it, I don’t remember all the days and years without a dramatic memory. And the ones I have may be distorted.

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Over the last 27 years, Insect biomass has dropped by more than 75% in protected areas in Germany. I don't think this is a memory issue.

https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal...

No doubt. I was just pointing to a single instance and not saying they don’t remember well or that there isn’t data regarding insects in general.

I had a similar thought a few years back and researched it only to find that the fire fly population where I lived hadn’t really changed. I just happened to be keying on a memory that had a large amount of them and not taking into consideration that wasn’t the standard case. That their yearly population is dependent on certain weather conditions during specific months. And that some years they have a bumper crop and others not so much, but on average look about the same. That doesn’t mean it’s the same story where they live of course.

Probably worded it poorly though.

So you provided actual data. That is good. That was exactly what they were asking - to use real data and not anecdotes from memory.

I didn't provide any anecdotes but I would point out that even if evidence is just an anecdote, it doesn't mean it's wrong.

My grand-father lived through WW2. I’d say he was able to give a recollection of memories and experiences that are not found in any books and even though I agree that “good sources for truth” may vary for the use-case, we shouldn’t bee (pun intended) too insecure about believing some of our “past-memory-gut-feel”/“anecdotes”. There is ample evidence about research being “sponsored by the right people showing the right results” or media outlets shaping certain opinions. And even though it may be true that the HN reader has a diverse set of sources to form an opinion - this isn’t necessarily right for “average people”. E.g., the effect and the implications of inflation. For decades I have been hearing that “there is no inflation on Europe, the currency is stable”; yet, recalling “what money could buy back then” stories - I probably get a different vibe. History often repeats itself and “true objective data” may either be spotty and distorted; I have probably grown old and cynic enough to say things like “maybe it’s a good idea to look into the past and remember real good what people said or saw...”

Driving on a highway for 10h without any bugs on it - common sight in Europe nowadays. 10years ago, I would need to handwash it after 3h on the highway. Anecdotes can be a very powerful tool for critical thinking.

I agree to an extent on most you’ve written but I do think we need to be careful too. A general insect decline (objective data points to this) seems to exist. But a single persons observation that they remember more fire flies than today doesn’t necessarily hold water. I replied to another response that I had a similar thought only to eventually realize I was biasing a small number of events from the past that were probably a standard deviation or more in the “lots of Fire flies” direction. I wasn’t considering all the times there weren’t.

Our brains do this. We key on certain experiences and memory favors the extreme. Over time our memory does distort. It doesn’t mean it didn’t happen. But that we should be careful with anecdotal memories to make generalized pr specific statements about today’s reality.

As for “history repeating itself” - does it? Or do historians who write history repeat themselves? Historians write about long sequences of events that seem inevitable and if only such and such action were taken then a disaster or triumph would have been avoided or accomplished. But the recording of select historical events is more a persons narrative - a story - rather than the actual past.

What are the motivations of the historian writing about the past? What have they negated? What have they chosen to focus on? What of their memories or the subjects they used to inform their history? Which people do you choose to understand what they “said or saw”?

What? He says he remembers fields full of fireflies. Why imply that it's memory distortion? I'm surrounded by fields and in the high point or July there are breathtaking displays of fireflies at night, and it's not my imagination. Why tell someone that they misremembered that?

I’m not saying that. Just asking if they remember an instance of it and comparing to a non-instance today.

I think I worded it poorly.

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