Comment by natrik | Hacker News Reader

Comment by natrik | Hacker News Reader

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Agree that at the moment Sweden seems to have done the wrong thing compared to its neighbours, Norway, Denmark, etc. However Anders Tegnell's strategy was to aim for the best long term outcome, not necessarily minimizing deaths in the short term.

Sweden, a country of 10.1 million people, in which annual all-cause mortality is around 93,000, is currently reporting a total of 5,743 "COVID-19 deaths" (using a very broad counting standard whereby anyone who dies within 30 days of a COVID-19 diagnosis is counted as a "COVID-19 death," irrespective of the actual cause of death). Of those 5,743 "COVID-19 deaths":

Almost 90% (89.1%) were over the age of 70 Over two-thirds (67.6%) were over the age of 80 Only 71 deaths (1.2%) were under the age of 50 Only 1 death was under the age of 20 [1]

In the US, around 80.3% of deaths have been individuals aged 65 or older whereas in Sweden, around 89.1% of deaths have been individuals aged 70 or older. [1]

In the US, only around 2.64% of deaths have been individuals under age 45 whereas in Sweden only around 1.26% of deaths have been individuals under age 50. [3]

Sweden is currently reporting an overall death rate of 556 deaths / 1 M population which is higher than the current US figure of 433 deaths / 1 M population. But Sweden's population is older. Around 20% of Swedes are 65+ versus only around 15% for the US. The size of a country's 65+ population is a reasonable proxy for the size of its vulnerable population in view of the fact that the vast majority of deaths have come from individuals 65 or older. If we calculate total deaths (any age) / 1M 65+ population for both countries, we get 2886 for the US vs. 2780 for Sweden. Sweden's death rate / elderly population is actually lower than than that of the US, and the US should only be expected to fall further behind in this metric as time passes in view of the fact that Sweden is further along its curve than the US.

[1] - https://www.statista.com/statistics/1107913/number-of-corona...

[3] - https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-...

You’re focusing exclusively on deaths, which is only proving the parent’s point. What about all the people who don’t die, but sustain chronic, potentially permanent damage as a result? Economies recover, but it’s less clear whether organs affected by COVID-19 do the same.

There are widespread reports indicating that surviving COVID-19 doesn’t mean you’re in the clear, regardless of your age. Yet a significant number of people continue to focus exclusively on death rate.

To reiterate the parent’s question: why are you, personally, focused exclusively on the death rate? Presumably, you’re young, and your risk of dying from COVID-19 is low. Why aren’t you more concerned about non-fatal but irreversible damage to your body, since that’s a more likely outcome for you? This is a perspective that people like the parent and myself genuinely don’t understand. What is your thought process?

The article here doesn't say the damage is irreversible, or that it hugely impacts quality of life. Which has been a pattern when I've researched long-term effects. There was a study getting passed around showing that 84% of sufferers had persistent neurological symptoms - certainly scary, even if they're not permanent! But if you poked in further, they were mostly composed of headaches, muscle aches, and dizziness, which are entirely normal and unsurprising consequences of recovering from a serious disease.

More generally, chronic and potentially permanent damage is a fact of life. If the long-term nonfatal consequences of the coronavirus don't pass the scale or severity of, say, carpal tunnel syndrome, I'm comfortable rounding that off as "not a big deal in the scheme of things".

>mostly composed of headaches, muscle aches, and dizziness,

I think you are imagining the most mild manifestations that could be categorized as those things. Those terms could cover a range from trivial to debilitating/life destroying.

It's like when you read that someone isn't or no longer is in "critical condition". It sounds good, it's antiseptic, but it could conceal unimaginable horror.

There are still a concerning number of much more serious chronic complications reported by low-risk young adults. Many report that the symptoms continue months after recovering from COVID-19, with no end in sight. Even though there isn’t much in the way of formal research at this point, it should at least raise some eyebrows.

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