Comment by FabHK | Hacker News Reader

Comment by FabHK | Hacker News Reader

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I think the point of the OP is that HK is in a fairly bad situation to survive as an independent state with one potentially hostile neighbour. Nearly 80% of HK's water supply is imported from China [1]. Only about a quarter of food imports are from China [2], so the situation there is better. But what if China were to close the land borders and impose a maritime blockade? It wouldn't be pretty.

When Japan invaded Hong Kong [3] in 1941 during WW II, the city fell after a bit more than two weeks.

Lastly, China is for historical reasons extremely protective of its territorial integrity (because loss of land often presaged the demise of a dynasty and subsequent disarray, and the touchy "century of humiliation" during which many territories were conceded to foreign powers [3b]), as you can see in its attitude towards Tibet, Xinjiang, Taiwan (China promulgated a specific law in 2005 authorising "non-peaceful means" if Taiwan seceded [4]), and HK and Macao. (See [5] on the contrast of the CCP vs western attitudes - not only can Californians discuss secession if they so wish, but Scotland, Quebec, etc. could vote on secession. Unthinkable in China.)

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_supply_and_sanitation_in...

[2] https://hkfoodworks.com/research/food-supply/

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Hong_Kong

[3b] https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/29/asia/china-separatism-ind...

[4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-Secession_Law

[5] https://www.chinalawblog.com/2020/06/on-secession.html

> Lastly, China is for historical reasons extremely protective of its territorial integrity (because loss of land often presaged the demise of a dynasty and subsequent disarray, and the touchy "century of humiliation" during which many territories were conceded to foreign powers [3b])

Worth noting that China quietly accepted losing territories, such as pulling back with India [1], and more importantly to Russia’s Vladivostok (Chinese [2] Google translate [3])--Russia is one of the foreign powers listed in the “Century of humiliation” propaganda, which China quietly accepts losing territorial integrity to.

China appears to be protective loudly, so that she could give up quietly. She cites “historical reasons” only when convenient. See what she does, not what she says.

[1]: https://thewire.in/security/chinese-pullback-at-galwan-comes...

[2]: https://www.rfi.fr/tw/中國/20200703-俄羅斯微博高調慶祝海參崴建城160周年-網民怒批-官...

[3]: https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https...

Yeah, HK independence is certainly not something that would happen SOON. But for decades, nobody thought the British Empire would give up India. After decades of protest and resistance, and shifting political landscapes, they finally did. HK protesters are likely hoping for something similar. It's a long shot, but if they stick with the resistance for long enough (like, literally decades most likely), there may finally come a point when China decides they're just not worth holding onto anymore.

except the British had no other option because their homeland was ravaged due to war and the INA was planning to use the Indian soldiers returning from war. and they extracted everything they could from India and the future was only trouble. It took a bloody global scale war for the colonies to get freedom as a side effect.

"Likely hoping for something similar"? Is this just naivete? As many other comments here point out, there are zero sources that suggest anything close to a majority of HK protesters want independence, let alone HKers overall.

There are plenty of HKers who want independence, though from polls I’ve seen it does seem to be a minority, more like 20% of HKers than 50%. Higher among protestors I’m sure.

One of the core demands of the protestors is sort-of “independence light”, though. They’re asking for their leaders, including the Chief Executive, to be democratically elected by HKers, without interference from China.

Regardless, the question I was responding to said nothing about a majority of HKers. It was just saying, for those who do want independence, how do they see it happening? And I was speculating that they could be looking to wage a long term battle of public opinion/annoyance, where China might eventually give up, vs. any sort of military conflict.

> Nearly 80% of HK's water supply is imported from China ... what if China were to close the land borders and impose a maritime blockade

This entirely misses the point that China is openly willing to invade militarily.

There is absolutely no way to achieve HK independence without central Chinese government consent. ...which is about as likely as finding an ice cube on the surface of the sun.

You're absolutely right. The hopeful "secession has often worked" idea founders on many many cliffs here.

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