At the current virus levels, it is expected that at least two teachers and 60 students will die every day in the USA if we reopen schools.
That is of course out of hundreds of thousands of teachers and millions of students, but if it's your teacher or your friend, it doesn't really matter how many millions didn't die that day, does it?
People keep saying "a few more months." What is the evidence for this? We are not going to have a vaccine developed, tested, and deployed to 300 million people in a few months. Nor are we going to grow Asia-level mask compliance, quarantine enforcement, and contact tracing within the Trump presidency. Now that it's a tribal issue, it probably can't be done at all.
It really seems like we're in this for a few years.
Also, at least right where I live in Santa Clara county, we're almost at the point of reopening again. I see 99.9%+ mask compliance here, and the numbers are trending down (albeit slowly).
I suspect based on the Governor's new policies that my kids will be back in school before Thanksgiving, until things get bad again and the have to leave again.
There is no timeframe for getting the virus levels under wraps. It's a matter of determining what the risk is.
I'd put it like this for myself, if the risk to the students and teachers is MORE than some already known risk factors we have out there (driving) then let's not do it.
If the risk to students and teachers is similar or less than some already known risk factors then we can consider opening.
I'd also like to see a plan of something like (not exactly this I'm no expert).
If someone from a class is confirmed with COVIDthe whole class closes for 2 weeks (goes remote). If there are 3 cases at the school they close for 2 weeks. If there are 3 schools in the district and there's less than XYZ miles then the district closes for 2 weeks.
This is a rough idea but we can easily handle 2-4 weeks off at a time given a case of COVID. So if we're opening lets be cautious and imitate other countries who have done well.
Also, where did you get those numbers from? I would have expected teachers to be at far higher risk of death than students.
Many fewer, especially given that for students it usually involves walking or short drives through residential neighborhoods.
> Should we WFH forever and wrap the kids in bubble wrap to avoid that trauma too?
Obviously not. There is clearly a point where it makes sense to go back. But now isn't that time.
> Also, where did you get those numbers from? I would have expected teachers to be at far higher risk of death than students.
It's based on the CDC mortality data combined with the number of school kids.
The teacher estimate is harder because we don't know exactly the age breakdown of the teachers, but it's based on the assumption that 30% of teachers are over 50 and putting the rest in the 20-30 risk group, which is probably too low.
The actual number of teachers is lower just because there are only about 1 teacher per 30 students.
My broader point, though, is that life requires calculated risk and tradeoffs. If the standard is "no child should ever experience a teacher dying from corona", and we WFH until that risk becomes <1/adult/year, then we're disregarding things like kids committing suicide due to isolation, health issues left untreated due to the pandemic, domestic violence etc. School is a literal lifeline for many children, particularly those from disadvantaged backgrounds.