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Comment by techie128 | Hacker News Reader

While technologically cool, I think Japan could benefit from young immigrants from different parts of the world to solve their human capital problem. This benefits everybody.

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This argument can be made about every technological advancement ever made. "Don't fix it with technology, just throw more people at it". That isn't how you make progress and it doesn't benefit everybody it just encourages stagnation.

It sure has helped the rest of the world conquer poverty. That doesn’t seem like stagnation to me.

The more we have immigrants stocking supermarket shelves and constructing infrastructure the more we can focus our high end R&D on things like biotech, medicine, space, and the like. That’s economics; comparative advantage is real.

That's not what OP is arguing. He appears to be arguing that technological solutions should not be tried in cases where immigration can solve the problem.

If Japan can automate many of these things they will end up being leagues ahead of those who solved it with immigration and will end up selling the solutions to the rest of the world.

But why should they focus on solving "problems immigration can solve" as opposed to "problems immigration cannot solve?" You could end up leagues ahead of the rest of the world in something like biotech or materials sciences. There's no intrinsic gain to be had by weighting the problem space.

You make a good point. I did not say that we should solve all problems via immigration. There are classes of problems that immigrants can’t solve. I’m just saying we should prioritize those problems above such problems. Examples include, researching cures for incurable illnesses such as cancer, HIV/AIDS, prosthetics to solve blindness, deafness, artificial limbs, etc. I feel automation can benefit various problem classes without generating mass unemployment.

More countries are on track to have declining populations than there are countries that have anywhere near enough people to export a labor class to do hard manual labor around the world. In fifty years, the countries above the replacement rate will be slim and mostly down to a few African countries.

Countries relying on immigration are going to get strangled and fall behind those that found ways to continue to develop themselves.

Japan is one of the easiest countries for skilled people to immigrate to. No quota, no requirement to try to hire locally first, fast-track visa (few weeks), as little as 1 year to get permanent residency.

http://www.immi-moj.go.jp/newimmiact_3/en/index.html

Do construction trades count as "skilled people" in the immigration context in Japan? Usually when I hear "skilled" in that context I think of doctors and PhD researchers.

Not for the visa I linked but there are a lot of foreigners working construction and assembly lines on other visa types. I think it’s generally managed by some kind of labour company and the jobs are mostly low wage.

I wanted to double check so I googled it and found this, looks like there’s new visas for things like construction: https://www.mofa.go.jp/files/000459527.pdf

I mean immigrants are always second-class citizens in japan, I don't see how they would prefer immigrants to robots over there...

> immigrants are always second-class citizens

That is true for every country on the planet.

Indeed, that is the entire point of "citizen" status.

I don't think you understood that statement. It means you'll never be treated like "one of us" regardless of your passport and visa status.

People are snarking you but this is absolutely true. I know multiple people that went over in their 20s. All but one came back within 10 years. People are very polite, but it's also clear there's a sort of invisible force field always around you that drastically limits your professional options beyond english translation/tutoring work. Forming a social network is nearly impossible.

One of my friends born there did his undergrad and masters in aerospace engineering in the US as there's a lot more programs and jobs here. When he went back due to family obligations he discovered he wouldn't be able to get a job beyond translating manuals. He's been told over and over again that if he had to leave Japan for school then clearly something must be wrong with him. So besides the undercurrent of racism, similar problems are found by native born citizens that don't conform to these expectations.

How is that innovative? Everyone is importing immigrants like there is no tomorrow. It's actually interesting how Japan is choosing a less optimal strategy that forces them to innovate or get left behind. If it pays off they will be leaders in robotics.

pretty sure they already are

We're in for an... immigrant shortage problem, however unbelievable that may sound.

China alone could absorb all that workforce and still have room for more given that their fertility rate has been below replacement for close to 30 years now.

Last I checked numbers I believe China's population is expected to start declining within something like the next ten years...

It will be very interesting to see how that affects both China and the world...

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