Why not wait 50-100 years when we have safe, compact fusion reactors, have fast enough engines to reach Mars in under a month, and have an economic imperative to harvest the asteroid belt? We gain nothing meaningful now--we're just fulfilling the fantasy of some middle aged men.
It is obviously much nearer, travel is much simpler and cheaper, and communication is near instant (1s delay vs. ~30 minutes).
It is not really an issue whether the Moon is relatively more hostile. It is a minuscule complication, if one at all, compared to the issues with going to Mars, of which fuel is also a small issue that we know how to overcome.
As mentioned this is not a technical/scientific issue. It is simply that Mars is more 'exiting' and creates more buzz because it is the 'next frontier' while humans have already been to the Moon.
Then name any scientific value of manned moon missions and compare them to the fact Mars may have or had life.
Then compare 1/6th gee in a vacuum alternatively frozen and roasted over two week periods, to 1/3 gee in an actual atmosphere with moderate climate and abundant water.
Colonizing the Moon is a big step up. One progresses better when they have a step by step plan.
In my view, targeting Mars and ignoring the Moon is not a rational approach, it's an emotional and PR-driven driven approach. It's a less effective use of resources but grabs more headlines. There is also obviously the race aspect and the drive to be the first to reach a place.
But in the long term I suspect that reality will catch up with the hype and that actual colonization of Mars will be preceded by a step on the Moon.
• Mars requires less fuel to reach and land on, and you can land far larger cargo and crew on Mars.
• Its far easier to make fuel for return trips on Mars. This is an enormous force multiplier, enabling landing even larger cargo and crews.
• The moon is a barren desert with far less scientific value and far fewer usable resources.
• the moon is far more hostile to human life. It’s temperature extremes are about four times as great, and last two weeks vs a single day. Mars is awash in water at every location, the moon is virtually devoid of water. Having an atmosphere,,even a thin one makes Mars much more habitable.
Also you can easily make return fuel on Mars, which massively changes your payload to fuel ratio for the trip there.
My point is to do both. Do things we've never done on the moon (colony/industry) while at the same time doing the things we've never done on Mars (set foot).
Regardless, I don't think risk of death should dissuade humanity from doing things as long as the people at risk are aware of it.
I don’t understand the attraction, but there are tens of thousands of people who want to risk their lives to live on Mars, it’s part of the human exploration gene.
I tried this strategy once. In college, I picked up a cool looking electric guitar from a pawn shop and tried to learn to play it. It turns out, though, that I wasn't immediately good at it. Worse, it looked like it was going to take a ton of effort before I was playing crazy Eddie Van Halen solos and stuff.
So I decided to put the guitar in storage and wait until I was good at playing guitar before picking it back up again.
Oddly, 20 years later when I dug it out, I still wasn't any good at playing the guitar.
I'm sure it's different with space travel though.
Ultimately, solving the myriad problems implied by the goal of, "get some men to the moon and then get them back again (alive)," resulted in myriad new technologies and breakthroughs to solve those problems, which were not (and could not have been) foreseen.
I suspect that getting to Mars and back (alive) will require solving just as many unanticipated problems and result in just as many new technologies and breakthroughs the ultimate benefits of which to mankind we cannot predict.
I could be wrong, of course. It could all be the fantasy of some middle age men.
Living on a single planet is extremely risky. We should minimize the time we spend as a single planet species. The earth is about 70% through it's lifetime, it won't last forever.
Mars is far more distant and hostile.
The people in those colonies died very quickly either from violence, starvation or just malnutrition. It turns out that European agricultural knowledge either didn't work, or wasn't considered an important mix in many of the colonies. The plant life was diffrent enough that even living off the land wasn't possible because people were just as likely to poison themselves with sumac/whatever as get lucky and find something edible. The results were a lot of failed crops, and starving settlers only kept alive with frequent resupply missions from Europe and the occasional trade with native peoples. The latter of which, turned bloody more frequently then we are willing to admit.
So, while they could breath the air, the difficulties and lack of knowledge were much the same as any mars colony we might try and start. Likely the results will be the same too. It will take hundreds of years of failures and people dying before the problem is understood well enough and the political/etc focus shifts sufficiently that one of them eventually succeeds. The results will likely be much the same, a vast increase in knowledge, not just for the colonists, but for those that remain. But instead of new foods, spices, gold and trading partners, there will be technology gains pushed forward in ways we cant imagine.
For starters, think of the environmental and biological understandings required to make life on mars long term sustainable that we don't currently have.
I put it to you that in 2020, this is a factually correct statement.
Building in low earth orbit will always be far cheaper.
There’s always those that think “I could be there sooner and dictate the market”. Mars is a big place and would certainly develop its economy in the long run. Being first is a risky but often lucrative thing.
And finally there are people who want to go there “just because” that can also push progress, the wonderfully weird pioneers that pave the path forwards. Otherwise we’ll always end up with something like the cryogenics xkcd - https://xkcd.com/989/