This used to be called "secular stagnation". There's not much forward progress, but nobody really understands why. Japan hit this first, in their 1989 housing crash. In the mid-1980s, Japan seemed poised to dominate the world economy. After the crash, Japan never came back.[1]

There was a fear that the US would hit that after the 2008 crash. But the US did come back. At least until the epidemic.

Macroeconomists think macroeconomics determines what happens. Sometimes it does, and sometimes it doesn't. When it doesn't, central bankers are totally lost about what to do.

Should a country have an industrial policy? The traditional answer in capitalist countries is "no". But it worked for Japan, S. Korea, Singapore, and China, which now make most of the world's good stuff. China's current industrial policy, set in 2015, is called "China 2025"[2][3]. The plan is to achieve dominance in the remaining sectors where China is behind - aircraft, ICs, etc. It's not talked about much outside China, but it's still the operating plan. The main items in 2015 were:

1. New advanced information technology

2. Automated machine tools & robotics

3. Aerospace and aeronautical equipment

4. Maritime equipment and high-tech shipping;

5. Modern rail transport equipment

6. New-energy vehicles and equipment

7. Power equipment

8. Agricultural equipment

9. New materials

10. Biopharma and advanced medical products

Halfway through the 10-year plan, China is doing well on at least 7 of those items.

Western countries are assuming that the knobs controlled by the financial system determine what happens. When the biggest country on the planet isn't playing that game, that approach may not be competitive.

[1] https://www.csis.org/analysis/made-china-2025

[2] https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/made-in-china-202...

[3] https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2019/1/21/saupload_J...