(Not to mention that many people either refuse to wear masks or don’t wear masks properly covering nose and mouth).
If you lift lockdown, lots of people get infects. It takes a few days, maybe a week to show symptoms bad enough to go to a doctor for testing. This is the point in time when cases begin to go up. Imagine if you lifted the lockdown for a day and went back.
One to two weeks after that, people will get more seriously ill, requiring hospitalization. Initially this can be treated easy at a (presumably) low-load hospital with no issue, the death toll is low.
One more week and you have the majority of cases in the hospital, this is where most people will die. A month after you lifted the lockdown.
Now imagine not locking down after that one day. After 1 month, you're at the peak of Day 1 infections, the next day the peak of day 2 infections etc. It compounds fast and can overwhelm a hospital.
Once a hospital is unable to care for all patients properly, triage will be applied. People with good recovery chances will receive treatment, those who are risk groups will not.
That's when your death toll will explode very suddenly.
Hospital are frequently overwhelmed even before this particular virus, its not new and yet we didn't require shutdown back then.
Not on the level of local, or even less statewide, hospital systems. It's true that the US is particularly vulnerable to things like this because the structure of the healthcare system leaves very little slack capacity, but healthcare systems at, say, the county level are not routinely exceeding all available ICU, ventilator, etc., capacity (because of the insurance-network based way that hospital preferences are often driven, rather than intelligent capacity-and-location-based distribution, it's probably more common that individual hospitals hit capacity when the local system as a whole is in fine shape, though.)
> its not new and yet we didn't require shutdown back then
Even if the premise was true, which as noted it's not, this argument overlooks that if capacity exhaustion wasn't driven by a particular easily communicable disease, a shutdown wouldn't do anything to manage it.
The shutdown is not due to the healthcare system situation alone, but the combination of situation and the contribution of COVID-19 to the situation.
In 2018 :
https://time.com/5107984/hospitals-handling-burden-flu-patie...
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html
Given the nature of seasonal flu, it's quite likely that by the time that was noticed, the impact lag time of any control measures would have made them pointless, but maybe there is an argument that control measures would also have been warranted in 2017-2018. But, in any case, health systems in the US being overwhelmed, at the local community—at least urban and suburban, the rural situation can be worse because of the impact of variations when small numbers are involved—is not, contrary to your claim, a frequent occurrence.
The issue isn't how long it takes "for death to show up", it's that patients who are infected don't drop dead on the spot. They develop symptoms, go to a doctor, get bad enough to be forced in to a hospital, treatment stops helping until eventually the succumb to the condition. That can take a while, especially if doctors are fighting for the patients life.
And yes, sometimes hospitals can be overwhelmed by single events, though in the US this seems to be an issue of lack of social healthcare than anything, but generally there isn't a single disease that puts hospitals into a state of triage (that is until Covid when hospitals in various places in the world did have to triage)
And in regard with hospital overwhelmed, its nothing new, this is from 2018, hospital have to setup triage tents:
https://time.com/5107984/hospitals-handling-burden-flu-patie...
And sometimes you build them and they go unused as has been done during this very pandemic because luckily predictions were wrong.[0]
[0] https://www.militarytimes.com/news/coronavirus/2020/04/29/ma...
A triage tent is used to sort patients between codes, ie emergencies and non-emergencies when space inside the hospital is unavailable.
Actual triage means when the hospital itself rejects patients because they do not have the resources to treat everyone anymore. From what it reads in the article, the hospitals weren't unable to treat patients on that level yet.
>Yes, all disease could have delayed death/long lasting permanent damage.
And we don't know what Covid-19 brings but that isn't even the point so I'm wondering why you brought it up anyway.
My point is at the current situation the hospital is no more overwhelmed then what has happened in the past.
>And we don't know what Covid-19 brings
Yes but we can learn from previous similar virus in the past and decision to lockdown should not be taken lightly. Unless this virus has death rate of ebola then there should not be lockdown.
When you say a stat like that you need to caveat it - is that 0.04% of the total population? Case fatality? Infection fatality?
It's also not looking forward - today's total values aren't particularly useful when we can obviously see that the situation has been continually evolving.
> Lockdown is not free, its not without harm.
Do you believe this gives you lee-way to diminish and share bad facts to bolster your claim?
[1] https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/22/health/cdc-coronavirus-estima... <- can't find the original source due to the link being updated on the CDC site.
>Do you believe this gives you lee-way to diminish and share bad facts to bolster your claim?
What bad facts ?
As I said before, that's a difference in a million potential deaths in the United States.
> What bad facts ?
You presented the death rate of the whole of the united states as being somehow indicative of the situation, when you were aware that that's an order of magnitude decrease from the projections for the United States. In addition you presented that 0.04% as somehow in agreement with the estimates " Inline with what has been estimated by most research publication."
So? In the larger scale is not a big number and doesn't justify the lockdown https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5...
"full lockdowns and widespread testing were not associated with reduced COVID-19 mortality"
>. In addition you presented that 0.04% as somehow in agreement with the estimates
Yes the estimates 0.65, the number right now is 0.04, its a lot better, its good news.
Do you have a CDC page giving that number please?
> New data on COVID-19 are available daily, yet information about the biological and epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 and SARS-CoV-2 remain limited, and uncertainty remains around nearly all parameter values. [...]
> Many uncertainties remain. [...] Observed parameter values may also change over time (e.g., the percentage of transmission occurring prior to symptom onset will be influenced by how quickly and effectively both symptomatic people and the contacts of known cases are quarantined).
> The parameters in the scenarios:
> Are estimates intended to support public health preparedness and planning.
> Are NOT predictions of the expected effects of COVID-19.
> Do not reflect the impact of any behavioral changes, social distancing, or other interventions.
Death toll is a trailing indicator (IIRC, it tends to be about 10 days from infection to symptom onset in symptomatic cases, a little bit longer to hospitalization, a few more days to death where it occurs, and that's getting longer because of better care protocols with more experience, so the degree to which death is a trailing indicator is increasing), we've gotten better at managing serious cases (which is better for ventilator capacity since we are using less per case, but worse for overall hospital capacity, IIRC, because we're using more bed-days per hospitalization.)
The fact that cases over time are skewing younger also depresses the death rate but that's somewhat misleading as to impact, because seriously ill younger people are less likely to die but also more likely to have long hospitalization and post-hopsitalization convalescence, and that's only considering immediate consequences and not the increasing array of significant delayed health consequences that are being identified.
To slow the spread so that our medical facilities have the capacity to handle the sick, and we don't have to let people die due to lack of healthcare resources.
First, you lessen the load of the healthcare system. If a lot of people get sick at the same time, hospitals would be swamped and more people would die because care is impossible.
Second, you can bring the disease from an exponential growth to sub-exponential, potentially containing it mostly (this is what happened for example in Germany, where tracking individual infections is now possible again).
Third, you buy yourself time until a vaccine is available. Even if no vaccine is going to appear in the near future, as long as you slow it down long enough (1-2 years) from reaching saturation in the population, that's lives saved.