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Comment by hchz | Hacker News Reader

I think you might lose for two reasons:

- Conventional RF systems can function with very low latency. The signal processing chain for radiation detection systems is comparatively large, and can require correlation (or anti-correlation) and significant noise reduction or signal separation to construct a useful signal.

- It requires an unbelievable capital investment for low bandwidth. You need a large time advantage to make your PnL on the few names this would support compared to microwaves and other conventional means.

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As somebody else points out the bandwidth isn't a major issue. You can have two opposing strategies and use a single bit to toggle between them.

Put enough behind those strategies and you're making millions a day.

Until your competitors notice and refuse to trade with you or do the same.

Sorry, this doesn't sound realistic (I work for a major HFT).

Do you have evidence that someone net a billion in a year making a market on a single name?

This seems to ignore that the effective bandwidth could be so low that the latency is greater than conventional transmission systems like RF. Since scintillation radiation detectors are highly stochastic compared to semiconductor RF receivers, I think it's probable it would take too long to receive the bit with sufficient confidence.

Scintillation detectors don't work like a solid state detector and have worse time characteristics.

It doesn't need to be a single name. You can select the best target based on expected volatility/volume - for example around announcements. As long as both ends are synchronised ahead of time (which can be done over traditional networks).

The other chain (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23903796) suggested 100 bits per second with a 5% error rate. With the (major) assumptions on that error rate and that you can modify / detect the beam in realtime that gives you plenty to work with.

Of course there is a massive difference between technically possible vs actually implementable.

Show me a backtest with a switching rate this low, on any name you can arb between the NYSE/CME/... and JPX with this 7ms advantage and I would acknowledge this is implementable if the PnL and vols justify the opportunity cost.

It’s a very cool idea but I’m skeptical that the market structure supports it.

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