Lets throw them a bone and say they're right, what do we do next? What actions do or can we take? Secure the labs? Shouldn't that be done regardless?
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When the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention last week unveiled a report documenting multiple safety breaches at its labs, its director for the first time suggested the country turn back the rapid-fire proliferation of such research units, which have tripled in little more than a decade to at least 1,500.
“One of the things that we want to do is reduce the number of laboratories that work with dangerous agents to the absolute minimum necessary,” said CDC Director Dr Thomas Frieden. “Reduce the number of people who have access to those laboratories to the absolute minimum necessary. Reduce the number of dangerous pathogens we work with.”
Or we could go further and impose a complete moratorium on gain of function research until such time as better technological and operational advances can be made to prevent potential leaks. These pathogens could be viewed with as much risk as nuclear proliferation is. But they are not.
We may or may not be seeing consequences today, I am not here to speculate.
What we know is that there were ongoing gain of function experiments with bat coronaviruses in Wuhan and elsewhere. What we also know is that there were leaks of SARS-1 from research labs in Beijing studying it. What we do not know is if Covid-19 was leaked from a lab.
When we convict someone of a crime we use innocent until proven guilty to make our decision. Absent evidence we therefore presume humans to be innocent of creating this virus. But that does not mean we shouldn't act under the presumption that this virus could possibly have been or future viruses may be leaked and rethink our positions on research safety.
Also, if they are right, you can press to find out whether the originator of the pathogen simultaneously developed antigens for their internal use, or for later sale, and can better make the case for regulatory regimes which are better equipped to prevent such events. If it was developed by a state actor, peers can exert pressure and international law to circumscribe the potential for future harms, and the political processes internal to the state will become empowered to make internal changes to prevent harms to the people and the state such as result. It is much more difficult to disempower a successful deceiver than an unsuccessful one.
China would either:
1. Refuse outright and militarily prevent anyone seizing the land
2. As a UN Security Council and WHO member, promise to conduct their own investigations with some oversight from the WHO - and subsequently release the wonderful findings freeing CCP from accusations and claims.
So unfortunately, nothing can be done.
Making that number mean anything might take a while.But we could certainly write a permanent bond and put it onto the books.
The global economy is unlikely to shrink more than 5-7% this year (call it a $4 to $6 trillion contraction). I believe the IMF and Worldbank are both around 5% contraction as their guesses. It will likely resume growth in 2021. Most of the major stock markets are being propped up and haven't suffered horribly. The big damage has been in lives lost, suffering caused (in numerous ways), and the social financial cost in budgets (blown out budgets, debt, unemployment, etc.). There will be ongoing unemployment costs for years post vaccine, which I've assumed in the $20-$30 trillion figure.
That 1/10th figure is not the problem. China could come up with $300b per year over ten years. The problem is they'll pay those reparations over their dead body, so to speak.