I hate to be the one to point it out, but what you're experiencing is very far from my definition of "Success". I mean sure, according to your definition you're definitely perspiring, but isn't there supposed to be some form of payoff at some point?
All 3 of your potential forecasted outcomes lead to you not having a life any time soon. As such, it looks like you've set yourself up in a way that precludes success, as many of us define it.
For me, a successful software business is one that provides the maximum income (and thus free time) possible for the smallest effort. That's what software's so good at: turning tiny amounts of work into big benefits. As such, the ultimate goal is zero effort and infinite free time. You seem to have contrived the opposite for yourself.