Is there another example in the U.S where U.S citizens reacted reasonably and averted disaster?
We had fewer people in 1918 so this would still mean millions of deaths if we let this run it's course without mitigation.
My other concern is whether this virus will have adverse effects later in life when one's immune system weakens.
This virus may very well drastically drop our overall life expectancy.
1. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena...
> Based on a systematic review and meta-analysis of published evidence on COVID-19 until May, 2020, the IFR of the disease across populations is 0.68% (0.53-0.82%). However, due to very high heterogeneity in the meta-analysis, it is difficult to know if this represents the ‘true’ point estimate..._
There have been several reports that the IFR has lowered since late May, so it will be interesting to see if they rerun their metanalysis with June/July data. Their paper also makes the point that this could be an underestimate due to reporting issues (under-reported deaths). But likewise it could be an overestimate due to under-reporting infections (with so many asymptomatic cases). I am a little concerned over the lack of mention of that fact in the paper, which to me is as important as the under-reported deaths.
I understand your concern regarding long-term impacts. While we can't dismiss those concerns, it would be the only coronavirus in the history of known coronaviruses to do anything like that. So with our knowledge of this virus and the family of viruses, we can say that is "unlikely".
Tissue damage from a lung infection is _not_ rare. The flu does this (https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/07/090717150302.h.... Any pneumonia can cause scarring of the lung tissue, viral or otherwise.
If you are referring to the clotting and inflammation, again this is not altogether rare for a serious infection. Inflammation is common and not normally dangerous. The clotting is interesting, but also not unheard of. Also some interesting evidence that this may be a secondary infection (perhaps caused by venting? https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6836438/) https://principia-scientific.org/cv-19-autopsies-show-blood-...
There are going to be a lot of deaths. I can't argue out of that reality. It is really unfortunate. We will all known somebody who dies from this, or at least are within a free degrees. The debate, in my opinion, isn't on preventing all deaths, it won't happen. It is how do we minimize death while preventing long term societal and economic damage. And how do we protect the most vulnerable without causing those damages elsewhere.
I know it sounds weird, but the age stratification of the IFR is a HUGE gift of this virus. It is more age stratified than the flu or other common pandemic sources. We are very lucky. Next time we may not be, so I hope we can learn from this on how to prepare for what we feared this was.
This seems to be a common thought, but it is an error to assume that incidence of death = acceptance of death.
The truth is, the socially and politically acceptable incidence of death from seasonal communicable diseases is 0. Yes, deaths still occur, but that is in spite of absolutely tremendous investment of resources to try our very best to get it down to 0.
To pick on the flu, for example, there is no tactic or resource that we have available that we have not deployed. We have invested many $billions to create an annual national vaccination program that aims for 100% uptake and is even backed by a special liability regime to manage lawsuit risk. It is the largest vaccine program we have for any disease.
We have also invested (and continue to invest) additional $billions in studying every aspect of the disease, how it invades the body, how it spreads, how it harms people, etc. We have spent even more to create public awareness of flu symptoms, treatments, and appropriate behaviors.
The fundamental difference between the flu and COVID-19 is the possibility of significant asymptomatic or presymptomatic contagion. With the flu, you're not really contagious until you are symptomatic, so getting people (including kids) to stay home when they feel sick does as much good as a lockdown would. We don't really know for sure with COVID-19. So far it seems like a big possibility, hence the emphasis on masks, separation, stay at home, etc.
Also unlike the flu, we don't know what COVID-19 does to the human body. We don't know how long post-infection immunity lasts, and we don't know what chronic ailments might linger with survivors.
The reality is that we can't compare it with "other threats of similar risk" because we don't know what the risk is yet. That's why it is appropriate for the current response to COVID-19 to differ from the way we fight the flu and other more well-understood communicable diseases.
What bothers me the most is that just like retail / grocery store workers we put people with the lowest earning potential and generally worst benefits directly in the path of this. I don’t want to get COVID but unless I convince my wife to quit her job my odds of getting it greatly increase due to situations out of my control.
Yeah, sounds a bit crazy, but could probably be made to work.
I have much less faith in 8 years olds.
I like the young proctor suggestion a lot!