Ok, consider me intrigued. What is that we are going to see/experience once you folks had some time? Genuine question! Can you give us a basic idea of the things that you are already sure by now will see the light of day?
Nobody else seems able to, especially the AI ("more power and money needed! we're just around the corner!") blowhards.
Same for ML powered solutions to data management - I don't want to say enough to identify anything.
My team has been working on a rudimentary humanlike reasoning engine based loosely on what AlphaGo proved: that machines can learn heuristics identical, equal to, or better than those of humans.
And for perspective, AlphaGo was what...4 years ago? Just look at the growth of compute available cheaply in the cloud since then! These next few decades are going going to see a phenomenal acceleration that's already starting...assuming we don't hit some unforseen limit or block. But even with what we've discovered now, we have more than enough in the way of new tools to refine across industry and society for decades.
Also complete novice so be merciful if I’m off base.
It would be like trying to understand gravity by throwing thousands of rocks, measuring the motions, and build an approximation on a huge matrix, without ever being able to get the « real » netwonian formula.
Am i correct ?
On the other hand, the difference between a team of people and a particular person with mens rea, that's not unique to AI either.
This isn't true.
Intelligence might be so messy that the only way to get to it is to grow it organically, which to me seems to be happening in research. People are trying a bunch of stuff based on intuitions for what may work, and post hoc adding some theoretical justification for why it's working. Human intelligence didn't emerge from some grand theory of intelligence either.
How would we know the difference between a problem that was interesting to solve but was hard versus a problem that just needed Google's money to solve?
Besides, since when was cloud compute was getting cheaper? I'm pretty sure, considering how increasingly profitable it is despite the "discounts," cloud compute has gotten more expensive, in the sense of increasing margins for the seller.
I guess we'll all find out what OpenAI does with its Azure credits.
How seriously can we take that phrase? Please mathematically model the Covid-19 pandemic's next 6 months. The epidemiology community dropped the ball and you can hardly do worse. Take the "Covid Challenge!"
mtgp1000 says>"These next few decades are going going to see a phenomenal acceleration that's already starting ...assuming we don't hit some unforseen[sic] limit or block."< -
Nobody can predict next year's economy and certainly nothing beyond 5 years! You're predicting for the "next few decades"?
mtgp1000 says*>"But even with what we've discovered now, we have more than enough in the way of new tools to refine across industry and society for decades."
Spoken like a true non-English marketeer!
This is one example of where things might be heading: https://science.sciencemag.org/content/350/6266/1332
See e.g. pyro.ai is already working on non-trivial datasets.
Ultimately, I'm convinced it's a hard compilers / static analysis / abstract interpretation problem. That requires lots of resources and a decade or two of work.
Why AI for that, it's vision AI to know when fruit is ripe or vegetables are ready for harvest. Then hand eye coordination to not bruise the fruit/vegetables and adjust force/sensitivity as the equipment wears down.
Scaling that will put likely many workers out and transform the business of harvesting. What I think is most plausible is one large manufacturer will consolidate designs and rent the equipment to do the harvesting much like the contract labor used now, but at much lower prices than humans could do.
People have been trying to design machines to pick fruit, even in toy scenarios, for decades, and we have little to show for it. I don’t think that image processing is the bottleneck here, it’s literally the mechanism as far as I understand.
I’m skeptical that any mechanical equipment will ever be able to do these tasks as cheaply, quickly, and efficiently as a human in our lifetimes.
Definitely easier than fruit, but we've made so much progress.
No way. Everybody wants the machines at the same time. You're going to incur the capital cost of buying/manufacturing the machines, the cost to store and maintain them for 50 weeks out of the year, and then rent them out at a profit for 2 weeks? No, the farmers will just keep hiring human labor.
If you can solve this problem, you can sell a lot of machines for a lot of money for a short few years. After that, they'll be a commodity and be dominated by all the other capital-intensive manufacturers that can run a factory better than you can.