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Comment by baggachipz | Hacker News Reader

We can bitch and moan all we want, but the truth is that this deal will absolutely go through. If there's enough outcry, expect a dog-and-pony show on C-SPAN; in the end, they'll approve the merger with a "stern warning." Count on it.

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I actually doubt this merger will go through. This would put AT&T far ahead of Verizon in term of subscribers, even if they are less desirable due to the low ARPU. There isn't enough churn in the wireless market to balance the AT&T and Verizon out over a reasonable time, and Sprint would now be a distant third. Effectively this will shut anyone else out of the National carrier business, and eliminate the possibility of any new MVNOs, since customer acquisition costs would be very high, and you only have two parties to negotiate licenses with.

I totally agree with you, except for your first sentence. :)

You care to put your money where your mouth is? I've got 500 bucks that says you're wrong.

500? Sounds good to me. Meet me in the options market.

Edit: Bought 10 July 28 puts and sold 10 July 27 puts against it. If AT&T is below 27 by July expiration I make $500. If the stock is above 28 by July expiration I lose $500.

I had never thought about this, but that is one hell of a way to put your money where your mouth is.

Interesting ... very interesting.

The cynic in me agrees, but I think it's reasonable to believe that if the public outcry were enough, regulators would stop this. So why are we sitting here upvoting cynical comments on HN rather than mailing representatives?

Personally? Because I think an HN upvote will have more effect. True story. NB: I live in South Carolina.

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