Are you sure about that? I was sure about that ("there's no way Trump can win") last election, and I was utterly wrong.
As far as his chances of winning - I personally did see had a fair shot in 2016, because the issues he was talking about mattered to a lot of people that had been disempowered over the past 8 years. I personally believe in LGBT rights, but it was obvious that there was going to be a horrid backlash from the gloating of projecting a rainbow on the White House. But since being elected Trump has addressed very little of what he campaigned on - the swamp has been further packed, and he's basically golfing and shitposting instead of leading. At this point he's coasting on favorable propaganda from Faux news, and the middle of the country will have that illusion shattered as we blow past 200k deaths.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23028036
Typical flu seasons: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/health_policy/influenza-and-pn...
Covid-19 death counts as of ~2 weeks ago: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
In the US, three times as many people have already died of CoVID-19 as die from influenza in a normal year.
The number of deaths from CoVID-19 continues to rise, and nobody knows what number it will eventually reach. With a 0.5% mortality rate and an R0 of 2.5, the expected death toll (before herd immunity is reached) would be ~1 million people in the US, or the equivalent of 30 years of influenza deaths.
2015-2016
Flu: 7,961
Pneumonia: 131,858
All: 1,769,940