> If the authors had given a table for the US, we could see what their model predicted, but they did not, and _you_ assuming that the US is a linear relation to GB may or may not be accurate.

The Imperial College team actually did model country-by-country numbers in a follow up report on March 24th:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-ana...

The United States estimates for several different scenarios are:

Unmitigated: 2,654,410 deaths

Mitigation strategy (social distancing whole population): 1,358,164 deaths

Mitigation strategy (enhanced social distancing of elderly): 1,090,267 deaths

Suppression strategy (triggered at 1.6 deaths per 100,000): 474,227 deaths

Suppression strategy (triggered at 0.2 deaths per 100,000): 84,124 deaths

The differences between mitigation and suppression are explained in the paper.