That seems like a function of how much the owners of the new company value their integrity and how much of a price they extract from Zuck if they do sell. At some point, not selling to FB could be a currency (the new upstart could pull talent which would otherwise not want to work at FB).
> FB is not going to fall like MySpace did
"History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes."
I suspect we will have to check back in on the health of Facebook after another 6 months of the COVID-economy ravages the advertising market. I think FB will be able to see the need to pivot; whether they are able to is not yet known.
> I find it unlikely that FB will be dethroned unless government steps in.
I think more likely users will just leave/atrophy on it like Gen Z largely did or possibly just suffer a slow death if global advertising doesn't recover to previous levels.
Most companies die or significantly evolve over the long term, even the ones that were monopolies. Would you rather own Blockbuster Video store/chain in the year 2000 or 2020? Same with retail music stores that sell CDs. Social media moves at 10x that speed, 100x the speed for those young kids who aren't afraid/wary to install new apps.